899
FXUS62 KMHX 310020
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THAT'S BUILDING IN TODAY QUICKLY WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 PM THURS...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER WITH
MORE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN EARLIER THIS EVENING AS WELL
AS SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
TO CATCH UP WITH RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOTE THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GREENE,
PITT, AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT TRACKS
N'WARDS OVER ENC TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURING GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER ENC HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE
POP'S OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA.
PREV DISC... CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO CREEP IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THIS GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS MORE MILD
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
THE LOW-40S ACROSS THE NOBX.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 715PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL END TO THE
MONTH OF JANUARY WITH UNSEASONABLE (AND NEAR RECORD) HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID- TO
UPPER-60S ALONG THE OBX. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUMP IN
AMPLE MOISTURE, WHICH WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE THE DEW POINTS FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM WHAT THEY ARE TODAY (MID-20S TODAY, NEAR
60 FRIDAY). THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
THANKS TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. UPSTREAM,
A DEEP MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND DRAG
A POTENT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, SO THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN OCCURRING AFTER
00Z. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH
OVERALL INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED (<200 J/KG) WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT BUT COULD STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OUTER
BANKS SAT AM.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL ENSUE FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL INCLUDE
A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EARLY SAT THEN THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE DRY. ON SUNDAY A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
DRY WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CLIMO, IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 50S OBX
DUE TO THE COOLER SURROUNDING WATERS. WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARMING TO NEAR 70
INLAND AND MID 50S/LOW 60S OBX.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THURS...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AS A
WARM FRONT TRACKS N'WARDS ACROSS ENC THIS EVENING, THOUGH FEEL
THIS THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BECOMING BKN TO OVC BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF ENC OUTSIDE OF THE CRYSTAL
COAST VICINITY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS ENC.
OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF ABOUT 9KFT+ ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT CEILINGS CLOSER TO 4-6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING PGV/ISO AFTER ABOUT 06Z AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. CEILINGS THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD
FRI MORNING AND SCATTER OUT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. LLWS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A 35-40 KT LLJ OVER INLAND TERMINALS WITH THE WIND SHEAR
THREAT ENDING AROUND 12/13Z FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT (30 KT OBX) ON FRI.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...FRIDAY A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AS A LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW FLOW, LOWERING CEILINGS AND
PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI EVENING. SW WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KT LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRES
PASSES THROUGH. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE NORTH, THEN VEER ERLY TO
SERLY LATER TODAY, THEN BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT, INC TO SCA LEVELS
ON THE WARMER GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. REST OF THE
WATERS AND SOUNDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS STRONG MARINE INVERSION
DEVELOPS WITH WARMING AIRMASS OVER THE COLD WATERS. SEAS OF 2-4
FT TODAY BUILD TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATER THIS
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...GALES AND SCA'S ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
EASTERN NC WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT GUSTING 25-35 KT FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-10 FT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SAT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15-25 KT
AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS.
N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING
SW 5-15 KT MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ154.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF/OJC
LONG TERM...JME/CQD/ZC
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...JME/CQD/OJC
CLIMATE...MHX
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