470
FXUS62 KMHX 311509
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
AS OF 9:50 AM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. THIS
MORNING'S SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVE EXITED THE CWA
AND WAA IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH CURRENT COASTAL PLAIN OBS ALREADY
NEARING THE MID-60S. AS WE SETTLE INTO THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). CLOSER TO
THE COAST, HOWEVER, STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE COLD WATERS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE MORE THAN DOUBLE WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY
BY REACHING THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S THANKS TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM A STRONG LLJ WILL
GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH 25+ KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ENC LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS
IN PLACE, AND IN FACT, LLJ SHARPENS AND INC TO 60+ KT IN THE
850-925MB LAYER. WHILE SFC HEATING ABATES WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION, GOOD BDRY LAYER MIXING STILL IN PLACE, AND GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER WILL REMAIN. THE STRONGLY
FORCED FRONT WITH LAYER STREAMLINES OFF THE GOM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FROPA, AND
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE NO INSTABILITY, AND
THUS NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED, MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTS OVER 40-45 MPH. RAIN AND WIND
ABATE QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT RACES
OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL CONTINUE A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A LINGERING COASTAL SHOWER EARLY SAT, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING QUICKLY. ON SUNDAY A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY, WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS. HIGHS SAT AND
SUN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SE MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE THE SC POP MENTION MID
TO LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH IS BRINGING A DECK
OF CLOUDS TO ENC, THOUGH CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. SCT/BKN 3.5K FT
DECK WILL LIFT TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF ENC. LLWS IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A 35-40
KT LLJ OVER INLAND TERMINALS WITH THE WIND SHEAR THREAT ENDING
AROUND 12/13Z THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
THE TRADEOFF WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS STRONG HEATING WILL BE
IN PLACE. SSWRLY WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
LASTING INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. A PERIOD OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH ENC AFTER AROUND 4Z, MOVING QUICKLY OFF THE COAST BY
10Z. WITH THE RAIN, REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS TO IFR ARE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GRADIENT IS INC EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER THE GULF STREAM AS GOOD MIXING OCCURS WITH THE
WARMER WATERS. FOR THE NEARSHORE AND SOUNDS, STRONG MARINE
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE WARMING AIRMASS OVER
THE COLD WATERS. BASED FCST HEAVILY ON CMCREG, WHICH INITIALIZES
AREA WATER TEMPS CORRECTLY. LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS/SOUNDS/RIVERS WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT
EXPECTED. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING INLAND WILL BRING LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE TO THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE ESP FOR THE
INLAND RIVERS, ALLIGATOR RIVER, AND WRN ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE
GRADIENT INC FURTHER OVERNIGHT, AND SOLID GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUND OF OREGON INLET WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT
OR HIGHER EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE SCA WILL CONT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WARMER WATERS ESP SOUTH OF C HATTERAS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL PEAK IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE FOR THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS QUICKLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
OFFSHORE.
SOME SEA FOG IS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP THE SC COAST THIS AM, AND
WITH RISING T'S/TD'S OVER COLD SHELF WATERS, WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE SEA FOG TO POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE ENC COAST. ATTM, NO
FOG IN THE FCST, BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION
DEVELOPING, LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING IT TO THE
CRYSTAL COAST NEWRD THROUGH THE NRN OBX.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT
RESULTING N WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7
FT. SCAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS. N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT
SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING SW 5-15 KT MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING W-N 5-15 KT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
CLIMATE...MHX
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