994
FXUS62 KMHX 312138
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
438 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO ENC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW, WHICH WILL SUSTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-
WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM END TO JANUARY HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY, BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. POPS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40-45 MPH. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH ALL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STORM TOTAL QPF IS IN THE RANGE OF
0.25-0.5" ACROSS ENC, WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED CONSIDERING PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BE DRY BY THE
TIME THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE BEACHES STAYING A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOW- TO
MID-50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...
SUNDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY, WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POST
FRONTAL N-NE WINDS. HIGHS SAT AND SUN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND AND 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SE MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE THE SC POP MENTION MID
TO LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRI...THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING BROUGHT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2-3KFT DECK OF
CLOUDS THAT STILL HASN'T SUBSIDED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CLEARING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA, SO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CEASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
HEATING AT THE SURFACE, IS GENERATING VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ENC WITH LATEST OBS IN THE 10-15 KT G20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AS WELL AS DECREASED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 03/04Z AND MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY APPROXIMATELY 10Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR, 5-10 KT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL FINISH OUT THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:20 PM FRI...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE GRADIENT IS BECOMING MORE
PINCHED, WHICH IS INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SW WINDS
WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 25-30 KT ACROSS
THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING AND BRIEFLY RELAX TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK WINDS BACK UP TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL AND REACH HEIGHTS OF 6-11 FT (GREATEST NEAR GULF
STREAM WATERS). A SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO 4-6 FT WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT TOMORROW EVENING.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL RIVERS,
SOUNDS, AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. GALE
WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AT 23Z. HEADLINES WILL START TO FALL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE RIVERS AND NORTHERN SOUNDS, BUT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME SEA FOG IS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP THE COAST, SO VISIBILITIES
WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT
RESULTING N WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7
FT. SCAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS. N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT
SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING SW 5-15 KT MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING W-N 5-15 KT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX
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