209
FXUS62 KMHX 010032
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO ENC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW, WHICH WILL SUSTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-
WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 PM FRI...GIVEN LATEST OBS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND
WEBCAMS PATCHY FOG HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST AND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. FOG WILL REMAIN
RELEGATED TO PORTIONS OF CARTERET AND COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTIES
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VISIBILITY'S MAY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES, THOUGH IN GENERAL
VISIBILITY'S OF 4 TO 6 MILES WILL BE MORE LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. POPS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
BRING BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-45 MPH. POPS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH ALL SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STORM TOTAL QPF
IS IN THE RANGE OF 0.25-0.5" ACROSS ENC, WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED
CONSIDERING PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BE DRY BY THE
TIME THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE BEACHES STAYING A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOW- TO
MID-50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...
SUNDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY, WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POST
FRONTAL N-NE WINDS. HIGHS SAT AND SUN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND AND 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SE MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE THE SC POP MENTION MID
TO LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRI...A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS AVIATION WISE ACROSS ENC AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
NOTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EWN BEING THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS OF ABOUT 1.5-2.5 KFT NOTED. THOUGH WILL NOTE, THERE IS
ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
AREA, BUT THIS FOG AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER MVFR TO ALSO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.
AS WE GET LATER INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO QUICKLY
FALL TO MVFR HEIGHTS GENERALLY AT 1.5-2.5 KFT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-08Z. CEILINGS DROP FIRST AT THE PGV/ISO
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 03-05Z AND THEN AT THE EWN/OAJ
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-07Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
RAIN AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE TAFS FOR ALL SITES.
FINALLY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A THREAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VIS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND JUST BEHIND IT, SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT
ISO/PGV BETWEEN 04-06Z AND AT OAJ BETWEEN 05/07Z. A TEMPO GROUP
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT EWN CLOSER TO 06Z AS WELL. CEILINGS
QUICKLY LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST SAT MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 08-10Z AT PGV/ISO
AND THEN AT OAJ/EWN BETWEEN 10-12Z SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL NOTE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT
AFTERNOON COULD BRING A CLOUD DECK AT 4.0-6.0 KFT TO THE AREA AS
WELL BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT FOR GOOD SAT EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO
SET UP AND AS A RESULT SW'RLY LLWS AT FL020 OF 40-50 KTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF STIES THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LLWS QUICKLY ENDING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
CROSS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AT EWN AS WELL GIVEN GUSTY SW'RY
WINDS AS WELL. FINALLY SW'RLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
NEAR 25 KTS WILL PERSIST OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A W TO NW DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT SAT
MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NNE'RLY BY SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...SUB- VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRI... A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS PATCHY SEAFOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE
CRYSTAL COAST. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE OUT UNTIL MID EVENING
TONIGHT BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HELPS TO DISSIPATE ANY LEFTOVER
PATCHY SEAFOG TONIGHT.
PREV DISC...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, THE GRADIENT IS BECOMING MORE PINCHED, WHICH IS
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SW WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AT 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 25-30 KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
SOUNDS. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING AND BRIEFLY RELAX TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK
WINDS BACK UP TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS. SEAS WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL AND REACH
HEIGHTS OF 6-11 FT (GREATEST NEAR GULF STREAM WATERS). A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE TO 4-6 FT WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BUILDING
BACK TO 4-7 FT TOMORROW EVENING.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL RIVERS,
SOUNDS, AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. GALE
WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AT 23Z. HEADLINES WILL START TO FALL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE RIVERS AND NORTHERN SOUNDS, BUT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME SEA FOG IS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP THE COAST, SO VISIBILITIES
WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT
RESULTING N WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7
FT. SCAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS. N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT
SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING SW 5-15 KT MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING W-N 5-15 KT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/OJC
CLIMATE...MHX
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