397
FXUS62 KMHX 010302
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO ENC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW, WHICH WILL SUSTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-
WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM FRI...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PATCHY FOG HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH A MIX OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS NOW SPREAD ACROSS
ENC THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM N TO
S ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION AND HAS JUST PASSED RALEIGH AS OF THIS
UPDATE WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
NOTED JUST OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AND THEN QUICKLY PUSH E'WARDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. GUSTY
SW'RLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND EASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT.
PREV DISC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. POPS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
BRING BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-45 MPH. POPS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH ALL SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STORM TOTAL QPF
IS IN THE RANGE OF 0.25-0.5" ACROSS ENC, WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED
CONSIDERING PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BE DRY BY THE
TIME THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE BEACHES STAYING A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOW- TO
MID-50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...
SUNDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY, WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POST
FRONTAL N-NE WINDS. HIGHS SAT AND SUN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND AND 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SE MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE THE SC POP MENTION MID
TO LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRI...A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS AVIATION WISE ACROSS ENC AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
NOTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EWN BEING THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS OF ABOUT 1.5-2.5 KFT NOTED. THOUGH WILL NOTE, THERE IS
ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
AREA, BUT THIS FOG AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER MVFR TO ALSO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.
AS WE GET LATER INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO QUICKLY
FALL TO MVFR HEIGHTS GENERALLY AT 1.5-2.5 KFT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-08Z. CEILINGS DROP FIRST AT THE PGV/ISO
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 03-05Z AND THEN AT THE EWN/OAJ
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-07Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
RAIN AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE TAFS FOR ALL SITES.
FINALLY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A THREAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VIS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND JUST BEHIND IT, SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT
ISO/PGV BETWEEN 04-06Z AND AT OAJ BETWEEN 05/07Z. A TEMPO GROUP
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT EWN CLOSER TO 06Z AS WELL. CEILINGS
QUICKLY LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST SAT MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 08-10Z AT PGV/ISO
AND THEN AT OAJ/EWN BETWEEN 10-12Z SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL NOTE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT
AFTERNOON COULD BRING A CLOUD DECK AT 4.0-6.0 KFT TO THE AREA AS
WELL BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT FOR GOOD SAT EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO
SET UP AND AS A RESULT SW'RLY LLWS AT FL020 OF 40-50 KTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF STIES THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LLWS QUICKLY ENDING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
CROSS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AT EWN AS WELL GIVEN GUSTY SW'RY
WINDS AS WELL. FINALLY SW'RLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
NEAR 25 KTS WILL PERSIST OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A W TO NW DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT SAT
MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NNE'RLY BY SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...SUB- VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE GRADIENT IS BECOMING MORE
PINCHED, WHICH IS INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SW WINDS
WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 25-30 KT ACROSS
THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
BY TOMORROW MORNING AND BRIEFLY RELAX TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KICK WINDS BACK UP TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
WELL AND REACH HEIGHTS OF 6-11 FT (GREATEST NEAR GULF STREAM
WATERS). A SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO 4-6 FT WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT TOMORROW EVENING.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL RIVERS,
SOUNDS, AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. GALE
WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AT 23Z. HEADLINES WILL START TO FALL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE RIVERS AND NORTHERN SOUNDS, BUT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME SEA FOG IS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP THE COAST, SO VISIBILITIES
WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT
RESULTING N WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7
FT. SCAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS. N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT
SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING SW 5-15 KT MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING W-N 5-15 KT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/OJC
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