361
FXUS62 KMHX 010758
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL
SUSTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
-RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE BY 7AM, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE DAY.
-REINFORCED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, NARROW BANDS
OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, WE ARE GENERALLY DRY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40KT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO BECOME W/NW BEHIND IT, STILL GUSTY AT
20-30KTS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
BRING BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-45 MPH. POPS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ALL SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE OFFSHORE AROUND 7AM. STORM TOTAL QPF IS IN THE RANGE OF
0.25-0.5" ACROSS ENC, WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED CONSIDERING PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.
THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BE DRY BY THE TIME THE SUN COMES
UP TODAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. POPS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING COVER
AS N/NE WINDS PICK UP BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL HELP KEEP
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COOLER THAN THEIR SOUTHERN
COUNTERPARTS. NOBX FCST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S,
WITH THE CRYSTAL COAST IN THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-QUIET, CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S INLAND,
NEAR 40 FOR BEACHES.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM OUR NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
STARTS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
SUNDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
WITH LIGHT QPF AMTS. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI...POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER/NEAR THE AREA. WILL KEEP SC POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI, WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY AS DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-MVFR CIGS AND VIS EARLY THIS MORNING
-GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING
-LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS ENDING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
-LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT, AND STRONG NW/W WINDS JUST BEHIND
IT. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTS, A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS IS
ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH COULD DECREASE VISIBILITIES DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS MVFR CIGS FOR ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE IS A LOW END (20%) CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
HANDLED THIS WITH A SCT007 MENTION IN TAFS.
CEILINGS QUICKLY LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST SAT
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 8-10Z
AT PGV/ISO AND THEN 10-12Z AT OAJ/EWN BETWEEN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL
NOTE SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON COULD BRING A CLOUD DECK AT 4.0-6.0 KFT TO
THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT FOR GOOD SAT EVENING. AS OF
RIGHT NOW A DROP TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON SEEMS UNLIKELY (20%),
BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY, OPTED TO PUT A FEW030 IN TAFS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MON AND TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE AND
TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
-COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
-GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS
-SHOWERS ALONG THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT COULD GUST TO 40-50KTS
-REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING GUSTS 20-30KTS FOR ALL WATERS.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BE AT THEIR WORST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO 45 KTS THANKS TO A PINCHED
GRADIENT, WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH BUILDS IN, USHERING IN
W/NW GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WAVES UP TO 11 FT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT
DIAMOND SHOALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY WIND SURGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AS A REINFORCED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. N/NE GUSTS 25-33KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO 4-6 FT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, BUT WILL BUILD BACK UP TO
MORNING BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT IN THE EVENING WITH THE
SECONDARY SURGE. INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE HEADLINE FREE BY
6Z SUNDAY, WITH COASTAL WATERS SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...MODERATE NE WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NE AND DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. TROUGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT
BECOMING W-S 5-15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON. SEAS 4-6 FT
EARLY SUN MORNING GRAD SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING,
WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT BEHIND IT. E-S FLOW 5-15 KT
RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RJ/CQD
MARINE...RJ/CQD
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