958
FXUS62 KMHX 011749
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DRY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK
WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
-REINFORCED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS
DRY START TO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TODAY, AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG THIS FRONT,
AND N/NE WINDS PICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND IT. OBX WILL GUST TO
25-30MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH INLAND LOCALES GUSTING
TO 15-20MPH. THIS FRONT WILL HELP KEEP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA COOLER THAN THEIR SOUTHERN COUNTERPARTS. NOBX FCST HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH THE CRYSTAL COAST IN THE
LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-QUIET, CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S INLAND,
NEAR 40 FOR BEACHES.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM OUR NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
STARTS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
SUNDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
WITH LIGHT QPF AMTS. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI...POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER/NEAR THE AREA. WILL KEEP SC POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI, WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY AS DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12:40 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
-LOW CHANCE (30%) OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCE A 30% CHANCE FOR 3-5KFT CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNSET. TONIGHT,
THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW BUT A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL REINTRODUCE
3-4 KFT CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DECREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MON AND TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE AND
TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...
-COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING
-GALE WARNINGS DROPPED, REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS
MORNING. PAMLICO/NEUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO DROPPED THIS
MORNING.
-REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING GUSTS 20-30KTS FOR ALL WATERS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENED A BIT, WINDS HAVE BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND, WITH SEAS
SOON TO FOLLOW. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY WIND SURGE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY AS A REINFORCED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. N/NE GUSTS 25-32KT ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS FOR THIS SURGE. SEAS VARY
QUITE A BIT RIGHT NOW, WITH 12FT OBSERVED AT DIAMOND SHOALS
WHILE 2E OF DUCK IS AT 3 FT. SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY DROPPING
THIS MORNING, BECOMING 3-6 FT THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SECONDARY
SURGE COMES THROUGH, A BRIEF INCREASE TO 4-7 FT IS LIKELY,
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY MORNING.
REMAINING INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE HEADLINE FREE BY 6Z
SUNDAY, WITH COASTAL WATERS SCAS DROPPING OFF BETWEEN 12-15Z
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...MODERATE NE WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NE AND DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. TROUGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT
BECOMING W-S 5-15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON. SEAS 4-6 FT
EARLY SUN MORNING GRAD SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING,
WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT BEHIND IT. E-S FLOW 5-15 KT
RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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