108
FXUS62 KMHX 012111
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BEHIND IT. A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA TOMORROW, FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING
ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CREATED A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT (NOBX) ONLY IN THE UPPER-40S WHILE
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST ARE IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-60S. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING
USHERED IN WILL SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW- TO MID-30S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM
LAST NIGHT. THE COAST WILL STAY JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETUP TOMORROW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 264. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY PROFILE
WITH THE MOIST LAYER BEING CONFINED TO 1-3 KFT UP UNTIL ~00Z.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A DRY
LAYER AT THE SURFACE LEANS THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH QPF AT LESS THAN 0.1". HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW- TO MID-50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI...POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER/NEAR THE AREA. WILL KEEP SC POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI, WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY AS DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12:40 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
-LOW CHANCE (30%) OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCE A 30% CHANCE FOR 3-5KFT CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNSET. TONIGHT,
THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW BUT A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL REINTRODUCE
3-4 KFT CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DECREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MON AND TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE AND
TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...
-REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING 20-30 KT GUSTS FOR ALL WATERS
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY WITH CURRENT OBS REPORTING 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND 4-7 FT SEAS. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND WILL BECOME 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AND 4-5 FT SEAS (6 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM) BY EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 3-5 FT.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL BODIES OF WATER EXCEPT THE INLAND
RIVERS. THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND ALL SOUNDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE INLET TO SURF CITY ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SUNRISE BUT THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET WILL HOLD ON TO 6 FT SEAS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-S FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD
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