177
FXUS62 KMHX 020014
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BEHIND IT. A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA TOMORROW, FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM SAT... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
UPDATE AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF ENC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A SCT TO BKN DECK OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY PERSIST ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH OF HWY 264 AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF HWY 264 THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER THOUGH THE NIGHT.
PREV DISC...A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ALONG IT. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS CREATED A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT (NOBX) ONLY IN THE UPPER-40S WHILE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST ARE IN THE MID- TO UPPER-60S. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HELP PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN WILL SEND
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW- TO MID-30S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THE COAST
WILL STAY JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETUP TOMORROW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 264. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY PROFILE
WITH THE MOIST LAYER BEING CONFINED TO 1-3 KFT UP UNTIL ~00Z.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A DRY
LAYER AT THE SURFACE LEANS THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH QPF AT LESS THAN 0.1". HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW- TO MID-50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI...POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER/NEAR THE AREA. WILL KEEP SC POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI, WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY AS DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SAT... PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS SINCE
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TAF TERMINALS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL ANY LEFT OVER GUSTY
NE-E'RLY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
LEAVING LIGHT NE-E'RLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL
OF ENC. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE OBX WHERE GUSTIER
WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY 5-10 KTS AS WELL, BUT WITH GUSTS
UP NEAR 15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND CEILINGS GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE 6-8 KFT. BKN/SCT DECK OF LOWER STRATO CU AT
6-8 KFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND
BRIEFLY LIFTING NEAR DAY BREAK. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SEEING ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 18Z SUN AND LIKELY CLOSER TO
00Z MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP AND BRINGS A LOW END THREAT
FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME
SUB-VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY 1.5-3 KFT. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS OF RIGHT NOW BUT MAY
BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SUB- VFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MON AND TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE AND
TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...
-REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING 20-30 KT GUSTS FOR ALL WATERS
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY WITH CURRENT OBS REPORTING 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND 4-7 FT SEAS. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND WILL BECOME 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AND 4-5 FT SEAS (6 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM) BY EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 3-5 FT.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL BODIES OF WATER EXCEPT THE INLAND
RIVERS. THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND ALL SOUNDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE INLET TO SURF CITY ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SUNRISE BUT THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET WILL HOLD ON TO 6 FT SEAS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-S FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/OJC
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