719
FXUS62 KMHX 021436
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 9:35 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE MID-MORNING
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- 30-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND SOBX,
DECREASING AS YOU GO FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF ENC AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH IS TRAPPING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS, PAIRED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, HAS KEPT TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS, WEAK COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE,
ALLOWING FOR LOWS THIS MORNING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND, LOW TO MID 40S FOR BEACHES.
TODAY, A COASTAL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH APPROACHES THE CRYSTAL
COAST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS TROUGH WILL REACH LAND, OR STAY OFFSHORE
WITH TWO CAMPS OF MODEL OUTPUTS. THE LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE DAY WILL IMPACT THE LOCATION OF PRECIP, IN ADDITION
TO TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVER. MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF THE CRYSTAL COAST (40-60%) WITH 30-50%
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST GOING UP TOWARDS NEW BERN
AND JACKSONVILLE. ONCE YOU GO FURTHER INLAND, CHANCES DECREASE
EVEN MORE TO 10-30%. IF THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS
REALIZED, POPS ALONG THE COAST COULD EASILY TREND UPWARDS LATER
TODAY. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB, AND A SHALLOW DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE, RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN 0.10" EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SE'RLY,
USHERING IN WARM, MOIST AIR. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH, NE FLOW
WILL KEEP US COOLER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
SEE HIGHS NEAR 50, ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST GUIDANCE HAS THEM
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. ALONG THE COAST, HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AIDED BY THE SE FLOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FOG OR LOW STRATUS THREAT TONIGHT
COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH OBX RAIN FREE BY 10Z SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS A
HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE SE TRAPS IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR
LOW STRATUS CONCERNS TONIGHT. IF WE STAY SATURATED AT THE
GROUND, AND WINDS HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME CALM, FOG IS THE
LIKELY OUTCOME. IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT INSTEAD OF CALM, AND/OR WE
REMAIN DRY AT THE SURFACE, LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP INSTEAD.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME AT THIS POINT,
BUT HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A COMBINATION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. THANKS TO THE FOG/CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD CREEP A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING, LOW 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP SC TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, IN THE 50S/60S, FOR WED WITH CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL NE
FLOW.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-VFR THROUGH THE MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES ENC.
-FOG/LOW STRATUS THREAT EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONCERNS.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS A 5-6KFT CEILING LINGERS
OVER THE REGION. AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
A COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES ENC, BRINGING LOWER CEILINGS WITH
IT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR (1-3KFT),
ALTHOUGH WHERE SHOWERS EXIST MOMENTARY DROPS TO IFR (0.5-1KFT)
ARE POSSIBLE. FOG/LOW STRATUS INITIATES EARLY MORNING MONDAY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...FOG INLAND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THU
WITH ISO TO SCT SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-WINDS AND SEAS EASE UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
-COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIND SHIFTS TO
SOME MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE 10-20 KTS FOR MARINE ZONES, WITH SEAS
STILL ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT. TODAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE UP. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CRYSTAL
COAST IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON, AND MOVE ALONG SOBX
THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT PERIODS. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS, AND WIND SHIFTS FOR MARINE ZONES. TO THE EAST OF THE
COASTAL TROUGH, WINDS WILL BE SE'RLY 10-20KTS, AND TO THE WEST
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WINDS WILL BE NE'RLY 5-15 KTS. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES, QUICK SHIFTS FROM SE'RLY TO NE'RLY ARE POSSIBLE.
SEAS DROP TO 2-5 FT THIS EVENING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page