904
FXUS62 KMHX 021839
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE OBX. PWATS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA, SO ALTHOUGH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 0.25", IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT SOME
AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX, MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY MORE RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN HASN'T MADE IT OUT OF THE 40S YET AND
LIKELY WON'T AT THIS POINT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. NEARER THE COAST, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW-50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FOG OR LOW STRATUS THREAT TONIGHT
COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH OBX RAIN FREE BY 10Z SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS A
HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE SE TRAPS IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR
LOW STRATUS CONCERNS TONIGHT. IF WE STAY SATURATED AT THE
GROUND, AND WINDS HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME CALM, FOG IS THE
LIKELY OUTCOME. IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT INSTEAD OF CALM, AND/OR WE
REMAIN DRY AT THE SURFACE, LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP INSTEAD.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME AT THIS POINT,
BUT HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A COMBINATION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. THANKS TO THE FOG/CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD CREEP A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING, LOW 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
MONDAY, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE
EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP SC TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, IN THE 50S/60S, FOR WED WITH CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL NE
FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1:15 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-VFR LIKELY BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES ENC.
-FOG/LOW STRATUS THREAT EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONCERNS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING ON SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOWING DROPPING AS A COASTAL TROUGH CREEPS CLOSER TO
OUR COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70, BUT THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OBX OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE
(<0.1") WITH THE "HEAVIEST" SHOWERS ALONG THE OBX. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
THE FIRST TERMINALS BEING THOSE FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH.
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BRING, BUT FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BOTH
ON THE TABLE. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ASSIST IN FOG FORMATION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RECIEVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY, BUT
PERSISTENT 50-60% CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW STRATUS COVERAGE AND
HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO, BUT PERIODS OF AT LEAST MVFR
VIS AND CIGS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06-08Z, SEEMS PROBABLE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE ERLY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...FOG INLAND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THU
WITH ISO TO SCT SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-WINDS AND SEAS EASE UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
-COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIND SHIFTS TO
SOME MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE 10-20 KTS FOR MARINE ZONES, WITH SEAS
STILL ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT. TODAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE UP. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CRYSTAL
COAST IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON, AND MOVE ALONG SOBX
THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT PERIODS. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS, AND WIND SHIFTS FOR MARINE ZONES. TO THE EAST OF THE
COASTAL TROUGH, WINDS WILL BE SE'RLY 10-20KTS, AND TO THE WEST
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WINDS WILL BE NE'RLY 5-15 KTS. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES, QUICK SHIFTS FROM SE'RLY TO NE'RLY ARE POSSIBLE.
SEAS DROP TO 2-5 FT THIS EVENING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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