151
FXUS62 KMHX 022054
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 2:45 PM SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE OBX. PWATS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA, SO ALTHOUGH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 0.25", IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT SOME
AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX, MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY MORE RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER-30S ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN TO THE MID-40S TO
LOW-50S ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE'S A CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 70.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS
WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND MID- TO UPPER-50S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY)
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP SC TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, IN THE 50S/60S, FOR WED WITH CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL NE
FLOW.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1:15 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-VFR LIKELY BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES ENC.
-FOG/LOW STRATUS THREAT EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONCERNS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING ON SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOWING DROPPING AS A COASTAL TROUGH CREEPS CLOSER TO
OUR COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70, BUT THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OBX OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE
(<0.1") WITH THE "HEAVIEST" SHOWERS ALONG THE OBX. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
THE FIRST TERMINALS BEING THOSE FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH.
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BRING, BUT FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BOTH
ON THE TABLE. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ASSIST IN FOG FORMATION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY, BUT
PERSISTENT 50-60% CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW STRATUS COVERAGE AND
HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO, BUT PERIODS OF AT LEAST MVFR
VIS AND CIGS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06-08Z, SEEMS PROBABLE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...FOG INLAND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THU
WITH ISO TO SCT SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 3:45 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN EASING UP THROUGH THE DAY, SO ALL
WATERS ARE HEADLINE FREE. A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE OBX WILL
CAUSE VARIABLE 10-15 KT WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY
SUNRISE BUT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
BY TOMORROW EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD
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