121
FXUS62 KMHX 030002
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS ENC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM SUN...A PESKY COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ENC
EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED INLAND TO THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH LOCATIONS
ON HATTERAS ISLAND SEEING SE WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.
AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BUT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOSTLY
CALM WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT.
EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND WHERE SOME
CLEARING OCCURS, AND REMAIN IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOON AFTER SUNRISE WITH AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL SEND
TEMPS BACK INTO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...
TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, AS A WEAK (DRY)
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP SC TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, IN THE 50S/60S, FOR WED WITH CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL NE
FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LOW CEILINGS AROUND 1500-2500 FT WILL DEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, LOW
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE (AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURN) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHILE FARTHER EAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN.
DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AREAS THAT DO PARTIALLY CLEAR WILL BE AT RISK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR MVFR LEVEL FOG OF 3-5 MILES, HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MORE DENSE IFR LEVEL FOG DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COASTAL PLAIN CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALONG THE COAST
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO CONTINUE, BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT BAND OF 300-500 FT STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INNER BANKS. WHETHER OR NOT THIS STAYS EAST OF KEWN
IS UNKNOWN, BUT IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF
THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS DOES INDEED DEVELOP.
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER UNTIL 8 OR 9 AM TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...FOG INLAND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THU
WITH ISO TO SCT SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 3:45 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN EASING UP THROUGH THE DAY, SO ALL
WATERS ARE HEADLINE FREE. A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE OBX WILL
CAUSE VARIABLE 10-15 KT WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY
SUNRISE BUT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
BY TOMORROW EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT W-SW WINDS MONDAY AND SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT
BEHIND IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...CQD/OJC
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