552
FXUS62 KMHX 030803
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT CONTINUES UNTIL 10AM TODAY
COASTAL TROUGH SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH OBX
PRECIP FREE BY 5AM. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MOSTLY CALM WINDS, FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF DENSE
FOG FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70, IN
ADDITION TO THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN (WEST OF HWY 17). LOWS THIS
MORNING WILL BE MILD THANKS TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, LOW 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS, FOG COULD LINGER LONGER
THAN NORMAL, EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY 10AM. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD SCOUR OUT A FEW HOURS LATER, BY 12PM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTION IS OBX WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WINDS
SWITCH TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WHICH WILL COOL DOWN THE
CRYSTAL COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COLDER SHELF
WATERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S INLAND, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY... MONDAY NIGHT A TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, PINCHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
KEEPING WINDS FROM BECOMING CALM. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S OVER MAINLAND ENC, UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, AS A WEAK
(DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH
POST FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.
WILL KEEP SC TO CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS DEEPER
SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL 15-17Z THIS MORNING
- VFR CONDITIONS THERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD
LOW CEILINGS ARE SPREAD OVER THE REGION,IFR/LIFR FOR MOST.
REDUCED VIS IS ALSO OBSERVED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING, EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED CEILINGS BETWEEN
8-10Z, BEFORE LOW STRATUS BUILDS BACK THANKS TO LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL 10AM, AND LOW CEILINGS
COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER, UNTIL 12PM. AFTER THAT, VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 KT AND
SEAS 3-5 FT. COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
FURTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT W-SSW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-6 FT. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID TUE MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT BEHIND
IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND
3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RJ/CQD
MARINE...CQD
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