877
FXUS62 KMHX 031159
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT CONTINUES UNTIL 10AM TODAY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS,
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70, IN ADDITION TO
THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN (WEST OF HWY 17). LOWS THIS MORNING WILL
BE MILD THANKS TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, LOW 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS, FOG COULD LINGER LONGER
THAN NORMAL, EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY 10AM. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD SCOUR OUT A FEW HOURS LATER, BY 12PM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTION IS OBX WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WINDS
SWITCH TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WHICH WILL COOL DOWN THE
CRYSTAL COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COLDER SHELF
WATERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S INLAND, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY... MONDAY NIGHT A TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, PINCHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
KEEPING WINDS FROM BECOMING CALM. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S OVER MAINLAND ENC, UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, AS A WEAK
(DRY) FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH
POST FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.
WILL KEEP SC TO CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS DEEPER
SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL 15-17Z THIS MORNING
- VFR CONDITIONS THERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EARLY MORNING TUESDAY
LOW CEILINGS ARE SPREAD OVER THE REGION, LIFR FOR MOST. REDUCED
VIS IS ALSO OBSERVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOG WILL
LINGER UNTIL 9AM, AND LOW CEILINGS COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS
LONGER, UNTIL 12PM. AFTER THAT, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EASTERN NC TUESDAY MORNING, A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE. A WEAK DRY FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7AM MONDAY...DENSE FOG HAS SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR MARINE
ZONES. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 16Z. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS FOG WILL LINGER, SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE FOG REMAINS STUBBORN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SSW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FT. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUE MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUE AND TUE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT BEHIND
IT. E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND
3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ079-
090>092-198-199.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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