358
FXUS62 KMHX 032131
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MID-WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL
SETUP A STRENGTHENING, BUT MODEST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AT MINIMUM, THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERTOP THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEA FOG, WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF IMPACTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WE'VE FURTHER INCREASED CLOUDCOVER
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
DENSE FOG. ADDITIONALLY, BASED ON SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS, A
FOCUSED AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE HWY
24 CORRIDOR THROUGH CARTERET COUNTY. A SMALL DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS IMPACT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, BUT
EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE FOG EXPANDS. OF NOTE, THERE IS A
VERY SHARP NORTH/SOUTH CUTOFF IN FOG VS NO FOG IN CARTERET
COUNTY. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO COVER WHERE MOST OF THE
POPULATION IN THE COUNTY TRAVELS AND RESIDES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RISK OF
DENSE FOG MAY EXPAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN TRENDED THIS WAY, BUT DOESN'T FULLY REFLECT THE WORST-
CASE SCENARIO. IN THAT SCENARIO, MUCH OF ENC WOULD BE BLANKETED
IN DENSE FOG, REQUIRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG HEADLINES. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL AREAS. ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT, A WARMING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE-CLIMO LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS END UP
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST, HIGHS WOULD TEND TO BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
70S INLAND, AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. IN THE CLOUDIER/MORE FOGGY
SCENARIO, HIGHS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S INLAND, AND 40S/50S
ALONG THE COAST. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF FOG/CLOUDS ARE LESS
WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING, HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S INLAND, AND 60S/70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE ONE DIFFERENCE TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY IS THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW/N DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW LONG THE
FOG RISK WILL LAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH
POST FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.
WILL KEEP SC TO CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BR/FG RISK AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
- LLWS RISK TONIGHT
LOW CEILINGS ARE SPREAD OVER THE REGION, LIFR FOR MOST. REDUCED
VIS IS ALSO OBSERVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOG WILL
LINGER UNTIL 9AM, AND LOW CEILINGS COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS
LONGER, UNTIL 12PM. AFTER THAT, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EASTERN NC TUESDAY MORNING, A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE
AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH FRI WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- ELEVATED WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID
TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS FLOW, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER CENTRAL WATERS, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR THAT IMPACT.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA FOG THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC DURING THIS TIME TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. THIS FOCUSES THE GREATEST RISK OF DENSE FOG
(<1SM VISIBILITY) FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
IN LIGHT OF THAT, THE EARLIER MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND WAS EXPANDED TO RE-
INCLUDE THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO ASSESS CONDITIONS IN CASE FURTHER EXPANSIONS ARE NEEDED.
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE PRE AND
POST-FRONTAL WINDS, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE. THIS
STILL KEEPS WINDS JUST BELOW 25KT BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT, BUT
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL HOURS OF 25KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONT. IF
THIS MATERIALIZES, AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-5 FT
SEAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. THE FRONT
IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ195-196.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-231.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD
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