049
FXUS62 KMHX 040030
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MID-WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDITIONAL FOG COULD
DEVELOP INLAND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
FOG ACROSS THE COAST. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SEA FOG DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS LINGERING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
EVENING WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE BECOME FOG-FREE. LATEST TRENDS
SHOW THAT EXISTING FOG IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND IT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN HOW, IF, AND WHEN ADDITIONAL SEA FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SW WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OFFSHORE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS
FOR AN ADDITIONAL SWATH OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SPREAD NE-WARD TONIGHT TO THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND ONSLOW COUNTIES, AND MAY REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE US 17
CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CARTERET
COUNTY, BUT WILL WATCH FOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ANY UPSTREAM
FOG FORMATION. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH OFFSHORE AS WINDS
VEER TO THE WEST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, A LESS IMPACTFUL PATCHY FOG THREAT EXISTS FOR
INLAND AREAS WHERE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING THE LOW
LEVELS TO SATURATION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR HERE
WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING WINDS, BUT SHELTERED SPOTS WILL HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING FOG. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS ENC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST
- ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL AREAS. ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT, A WARMING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE-CLIMO LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS END UP
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST, HIGHS WOULD TEND TO BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
70S INLAND, AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. IN THE CLOUDIER/MORE FOGGY
SCENARIO, HIGHS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S INLAND, AND 40S/50S
ALONG THE COAST. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF FOG/CLOUDS ARE LESS
WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING, HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S INLAND, AND 60S/70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE ONE DIFFERENCE TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY IS THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW/N DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW LONG THE
FOG RISK WILL LAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MON...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH
POST FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAINED STALLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.
WILL KEEP SC TO CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST (MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS). LOWER CONFIDENCE THREAT OF RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
- LLWS RISK TONIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF ENC EXCEPT
FOR ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG REMAIN
AND ARE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 OR LESS. FOG COVERAGE WILL
MOSTLY MAINTAIN OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD EXPAND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SWATH DEVELOPS AND MOVE NE-WARD
FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INLAND EXTENT OF THE FOG. LESS DENSE FOG IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE
IS LIKELY TO REACH THE US 17 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING KEWN AND KOAJ,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES HERE DROP TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A RADIATIONAL FOG THREAT WILL
EXIST INLAND OF THIS, WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH THIS
AIRMASS, A LIFR/IFR EVENT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT VISIBILITIES DROP TO 3-5 MILES
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LLWS AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE
AND TUE EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WED THROUGH FRI WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- ELEVATED WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, AND REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS FLOW, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER CENTRAL WATERS, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR THAT IMPACT.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA FOG THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC DURING THIS TIME TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. THIS FOCUSES THE GREATEST RISK OF DENSE FOG
(<1SM VISIBILITY) FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET. IN LIGHT OF THAT, THE EARLIER MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE PRE AND
POST-FRONTAL WINDS, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE. THIS
STILL KEEPS WINDS JUST BELOW 25KT BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT, BUT
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL HOURS OF 25KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONT. IF
THIS MATERIALIZES, AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 2-5 FT
SEAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. THE FRONT
IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ195-196.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SGK
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