107
FXUS62 KMHX 040920
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MID- WEEK. YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FOG RISK DECREASED FOR THIS MORNING
- WARM DAY FOR MOST
FOG THREAT HAS DECREASED BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME SEA FOG OBSERVED ON RADAR IN PENDER
COUNTY AND ALONG WATERS OFFSHORE OF PENDER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL PROGRESS, BUT
COLD FRONT IS OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME. THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY/WEST FLOW AND ABOVE-
CLIMO LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO TOP
OUT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY IN
THE MID 70S FOR MOST, WITH OBX COOLER AT LOW TO MID 60S. DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NW WINDS,
BUT DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE, NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT, AND RAPID DROPS IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A BREEZY DAY EXPECTED AS WELL, AS WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THANKS TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
BESIDES THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND, LOW TO MID 40S FOR
BEACHES. WE SHOULDN'T BE DECOUPLING, SO FOG IS NOT A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME EITHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY... THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N WED WITH POST
FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. MOISTURE RICH MIDLEVEL AIR AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC RAIN CHANCES LATE WED INTO THURS. WIDESPREAD LKLY
OVERNIGHT, WANING FROM W TO E THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEWEEK...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP MOIST SERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ENC FRI.
WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL S OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD LATE SATURDAY, WARM
SECTORING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCHC TO CHC POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR
EXTENDED DRY PERIODS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW (20%) CHANCE OF SEA AND RADIATIONAL FOG THIS MORNING
- LLWS RISK THIS MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE MOMENT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FOG AND SEA FOG CHANCES ARE
TRENDING DOWN. CONTINUED LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT DECOUPLING
AND PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
CLOSER THE THE COAST, WE HAVE A BAND OF SEA FOG CURRENTLY OVER
CAPE FEAR, SLOWING EXPANDING NE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR THIS BAND OF FOG EXPANDS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE
SEA FOG WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. WILL BE CLOSELY TRACKING THIS
ON SATELLITE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CASE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE TO BE MADE.
LLWS CONCERNS THIS MORNING THANKS TO A PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT QUITE A BIT TODAY,
STARTING OFF SW 5-10 KTS, BECOMING NW 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING, WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO BECOME NE
5-15 KTS.
ALONG THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WE COULD SEE CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT,
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS SETTING UP BEHIND IT
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED WED
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK THIS MORNING FOR WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
WATERS BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS HAS LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS FLOW, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER CENTRAL WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR THAT IMPACT.
ADDITIONALLY, A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXISTS UNTIL 15Z FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT AS A BAND OF SEA
FOG INITIALLY NEAR CAPE FEAR PROGRESSED TOWARDS THE AREA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REGION.
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A NW WIND SHIFT,
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING VEERING WINDS FURTHER
TO THE NE. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
PRE AND POST- FRONTAL WINDS, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
CHANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT TO HANDLE THIS SECONDARY
SURGE, AND NEW SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OCRACOKE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 3-5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RJ
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