399
FXUS62 KMHX 041758
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MID-WEEK. YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM DAY FOR MOST
- DRY COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TODAY
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, A WARMING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WEST FLOW AND ABOVE- CLIMO LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST,
WITH OBX COOLER AT LOW TO MID 60S. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NW WINDS, BUT DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE, NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, AND RAPID DROPS
IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A BREEZY
DAY EXPECTED AS WELL, AS WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD GUST TO 25
MPH THANKS TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
BESIDES THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND, LOW TO MID 40S FOR
BEACHES. WE SHOULDN'T BE DECOUPLING, SO FOG IS NOT A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME EITHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY... THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N WED WITH POST
FRONTAL NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. MOISTURE RICH MIDLEVEL AIR AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC RAIN CHANCES LATE WED INTO THURS. WIDESPREAD LKLY
OVERNIGHT, WANING FROM W TO E THURSDAY MORNING.
LATE WEEK...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP MOIST SERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ENC
FRI.
WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL S OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD LATE SATURDAY, WARM
SECTORING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCHC TO CHC POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR
EXTENDED DRY PERIODS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z THIS EVENING
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ENC BETWEEN 21Z-03Z (4PM-10PM) THIS
EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL, W TO NW WINDS, WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
(UP TO 20KT) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW
10KT FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS APPEARS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. WITHIN THIS REGIME, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FILLING IN FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SUB VFR CIGS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF -RA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GUIDANCE SOMETIMES
IS TOO QUICK TO BRING LOW CIGS INTO THE AREA IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN, SO I KEPT THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED WED
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG RISK THIS MORNING FOR WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
WATERS BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS HAS LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS FLOW, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER CENTRAL WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR THAT IMPACT.
ADDITIONALLY, A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXISTS UNTIL 15Z FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT AS A BAND OF SEA
FOG INITIALLY NEAR CAPE FEAR PROGRESSED TOWARDS THE AREA. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REGION.
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A NW WIND SHIFT,
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING VEERING WINDS FURTHER
TO THE NE. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
PRE AND POST- FRONTAL WINDS, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
CHANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT TO HANDLE THIS SECONDARY
SURGE, AND NEW SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OCRACOKE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...E-SE FLOW 5-15 KT RETURNS WED WITH 3-5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB/RJ
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