163
FXUS62 KMHX 041902
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
202 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING, THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
BASED ON SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS A COLD
FRONT HAS JUST NOW REACHED THE VIRGINIA BEACH AREA OF SE VA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING,
CROSSING ENC BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM
WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WHERE THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS COMING OFF THE COLDER WATERS NEARBY,
HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 60S.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY, WITH A NOTICEABLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS AREAWIDE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
COOLER, AND WE NOW EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY THANKS TO A LACK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG IT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH.
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THAT WAVE, PLUS
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW/COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK LOW, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID SIGNAL FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE SOMETIMES BRINGS
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TOO QUICKLY IN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS, AND BECAUSE OF THIS, I'VE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS QUICKLY AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
REGARDLESS, A NOTABLE IMPACT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE COLDER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW,
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, AND A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP. IN FACT,
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER, AND THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THIS NOW GIVES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
(COMPARED TO TODAY'S 60S AND 70S).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY... THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
MIDWEEK...MOISTURE RICH MIDLEVEL AIR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE W LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC RAIN
CHANCES INTO THURS. WIDESPREAD LKLY OVERNIGHT, WANING FROM W TO
E THURSDAY MORNING.
LATE WEEK...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP MOIST SERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ENC
FRI.
WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL S OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD LATE SATURDAY, WARM
SECTORING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCHC TO CHC POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR
EXTENDED DRY PERIODS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z THIS EVENING
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ENC BETWEEN 21Z-03Z (4PM-10PM) THIS
EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL, W TO NW WINDS, WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
(UP TO 20KT) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW
10KT FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS APPEARS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. WITHIN THIS REGIME, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FILLING IN FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SUB VFR CIGS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF -RA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GUIDANCE SOMETIMES
IS TOO QUICK TO BRING LOW CIGS INTO THE AREA IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN, SO I KEPT THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED WED
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY SOUTH, CROSSING THE ENC
WATERS BETWEEN 4PM AND 11PM THIS EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10-
20KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY FLIP AROUND TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF 25KT WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH WINDS,
AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. FOR NOW, THE PLAN IS TO KEEP
THE ONGOING MARINE HAZARDS AS-IS, BUT STAY TUNED AS A SHORT-FUSED
SCA COULD POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT SHOULD SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER WITH WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE,
POTENTIALLY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. FOR NOW, THE COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE FLOW NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT,
THE FLOW MAY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY, DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-4 FT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, AND REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB
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