156
FXUS62 KMHX 050009
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING, THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM TUE...THE SECOND PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH ENC, WITH A BOUNDARY RAPIDLY ADVANCING SW-WARD
OUT OF THE INNER BANKS. AHEAD OF THIS WINDS HAVE CALMED AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL CURTAIL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 40S
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CAA INCREASING. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S INLAND, AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH.
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THAT WAVE, PLUS
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW/COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK LOW, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID SIGNAL FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
REGARDLESS, A NOTABLE IMPACT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE COLDER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW,
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, AND A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP. IN FACT,
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER, AND THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THIS NOW GIVES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
(COMPARED TO TODAY'S 60S AND 70S). LATEST TRENDS DO SHOW
HOWEVER THAT A THIN STRIP SOUTH OF US 70 COULD REACH THE UPPER
50S TO EVEN 60 BEFORE THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY... THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA.
MIDWEEK...MOISTURE RICH MIDLEVEL AIR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE W LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC RAIN
CHANCES INTO THURS. WIDESPREAD LKLY OVERNIGHT, WANING FROM W TO
E THURSDAY MORNING.
LATE WEEK...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP MOIST SERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ENC
FRI.
WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL S OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD LATE SATURDAY, WARM
SECTORING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCHC TO CHC POPS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SC THUNDER MENTION IN FOR THU, GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR
EXTENDED DRY PERIODS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THU AND SUN LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS AS
DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS, AND THEN WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING AS ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 7-9 AM TOMORROW MORNING, WITH CEILINGS STEADILY LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY, DROPPING BELOW 2000 FT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TOMORROW EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING, AND THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF IFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SUB VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED WED
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY SOUTH, CROSSING THE ENC
WATERS BETWEEN 4PM AND 11PM THIS EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10-
20KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY FLIP AROUND TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF 25KT WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH WINDS,
AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. FOR NOW, THE PLAN IS TO KEEP
THE ONGOING MARINE HAZARDS AS-IS, BUT STAY TUNED AS A SHORT-FUSED
SCA COULD POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT SHOULD SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER WITH WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE,
POTENTIALLY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. FOR NOW, THE COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE FLOW NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT,
THE FLOW MAY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY, DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-4 FT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, AND REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0315 TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THU
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING N 10-20 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RM/SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB
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