966
FXUS62 KMHX 052020
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH COULD ALSO MIX TO THE
SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE OF HEAVY PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- WIDESPREAD STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING
- MINOR EROSION AND COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS IS PROVIDING ENHANCED FORCING FOR THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT.
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS LEAD TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WHICH
HAS TAPPED INTO THE LOWER BOUNDS OF AN ANOMALOUS LLJ. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 40-50 MPH NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TREE AND
POWER LINE DAMAGE WELL AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF ENC INTO THIS EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW INTO
THE 60S. THIS IS OCCURING BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS INSTABILITY PEAKING BELOW 500 J/KG,
BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST VALUES AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG. THE HIGHER END
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO. REGARDLESS, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP.
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT, GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN
ANOMALOUS 55-65KT+ LLJ OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
MEANWHILE, SLIGHTLY BACKED SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
QLCS/FRONT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF 0-1KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2.
WHILE THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THE
KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE, AND CAN'T BE
UNDERSTATED. BECAUSE OF THE LOWER INSTABILITY, COMPOSITE
PARAMETERS ARE A BIT LOWER, BUT STILL NOTEWORTHY (STP>1, SCP>2,
ETC.). GIVEN THE OBSERVED KINEMATICS, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THIS
WILL ENHANCE BOTH THE WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE A BIT MORE SENSITIVE TO
THE INSTABILITY, WHICH SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS EVENT.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL HAVE. HOWEVER,
WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OFF THE WARMER GULF
STREAM WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE COOLER WATERS MAY NOT
HAVE QUITE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT AS MIGHT BE THE CASE IN A MORE
PROMINENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT. LASTLY, THE MAJORITY OF
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEING FOCUSED OVER ENC, WHICH NICELY LINES UP WITH SPC'S
"ENHANCED" RISK OUTLOOK.
THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE (QLCS) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ENC
WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, AS WELL
AS A FEW INSTANCES OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR LESS
STURDY BUILDINGS. WITHIN THIS SCENARIO, A LOW END TORNADO RISK
IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE, AND
WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE LINE (BROKEN S SIGNATURE)
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM DUPLIN/ONSLOW COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
CARTERET AND CRAVEN COUNTIES, AND THE SOUTHERN OBX.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS PROGGED
TO BE JUST OFF OF THE OBX AROUND 0Z EARLY THIS EVENING THUS
ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING TO SW
AROUND 10-15 MPH INLAND AND 15-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. CAA
BEGINS TO RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID
40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH NW WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS THIS OCCURS BUT
THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY SO CHANCES OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 0400 WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE WEEKEND
FORECAST THEN A MORE BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE TO START NEXT
WEEK, BUT THEN FOLLOWED LATER IN THE PERIOD, CONFIDENCE AGAIN
DECREASES WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST DETAILS (MORESO THAN YOUR
USUAL 5-7 DAY FORECAST).
LATE WEEK...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT FINISHES WITH ITS
PIVOT ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. CARRY A MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING, BUT
CAA AT THE SFC AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
LEADS TO CALMING, CLEARING, AND COOLING. FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS FLA TO THE ATLANTIC, RETURNING LOWER LEVELS TO SERLY
FLOW REGIME, REVERSING THE COOLING/TREND FROM THURSDAY. 50/30 THU,
60/45 FRI.
WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MINUTE ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST AFTER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FRI. LOW DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACNW THURS AND FRI IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK AS THE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED FOR HOW IT WILL INTERACT BETWEEN THE NERN
STREAM WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SERN STREAM PATTERN
ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG RIDGING ISN'T NARROW. HOW
THIS WAVE EVOLVES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD/NON-EXTREME SOLUTION
WHICH CALLS FOR THE DECAYING WAVE TO GET PICKED UP BY THE NERN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY FROPA
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
EVERYTHING WORKS OUT WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM, IT'S MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED MCVS WILL WORK OVERHEAD LEADING TO
CLOUDIER SKIES AND AT LEAST A SCHC-CHC POP CENTERED AROUND FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK...NATURALLY, LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE
THING WE DON'T HAVE A CLEAR VIEW OF YET. NERN STREAM TROUGH
ALOFT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY WITH WEAKER SERN STREAM
TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ON JUST HOW MUCH THE
SERN SYSTEM SLOTHS BEHIND. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRY
FOR NEXT WEEK BANKING ON SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS TO ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX
QUIET. WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A
LITTLE MORE WET AND DYNAMIC.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE TODAY
- INCREASED RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS (GUSTS 35-45KT) EXPECTED TODAY
A STRONG LLJ AND ASSOCIATED LLWS IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, PEAKING AT AROUND 50-60 KT. THIS THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL COOLING SHRINKS THE MIXING
LAYER AND WINDS BECOME MORE SW.
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A QUICK MOVING LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TAF SITES BY 22Z WITH IMPROVING CEILING
CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS AROUND 0Z BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS BECOME MORE SW TO W BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES. ON THU WINDS
BECOME NW WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BASES AT
VFR LEVELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 0345 WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL SWERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
FRIDAY. FLIGHT CATS COULD DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND WITH FROPA
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES IN EASTERN NC THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS
REACHING STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WITH SEAS UP TO 15-18 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON TOP OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH AREA
WATERS THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 60+
MPH WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS.
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 6-11 FT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUNDS AND INLAND RIVERS WITH LOW END
NW GALES REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING BRIEFLY TO END THE WEEK WITH
WERLY 10-20KT WINDS AND 2-5FT SEAS FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT UPPING WINDS, SEAS,
AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY TIMES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC TONIGHT LEADING TO
STRONG WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FROPA, LEADING TO COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE ASTRO TIDE WILL BE RISING, TIDAL PEAK DOES NOT
COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST WINDS.
TODAY (STRONG PREFRONTAL SERLY FLOW)
- MINOR SOUND-SIDE FLOODING FOR AREAS ALONG OBX FROM BUXTON
NORTH AND AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NERN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND
THE PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS DUE TO GALE FORCE SERLY WINDS.
UP TO 1-2FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED.
- MINOR BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUN-UP, AND LOCALIZED OCEAN OVER-
WASH FOR S AND SE FACING BEACHES. GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
ALONG OCRACOKE ISLAND WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR
HATTERAS.
THURSDAY (STRONG POSTFRONTAL WERLY FLOW)
- GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY HINTED AT A SECOND ROUND OF WATER
RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE IN THE
POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
1-2 FEET.
W-WNWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY APPROACHING
GALE FORCE, STRONGEST OVER A LINE FROM PAMLICO RIVER OVER
PAMLICO SOUND. BEST CHANCE FOR INUNDATION OCRACOKE AND THE SERN
EXTENT OF HATTERAS ISLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR SIMILAR INUNDATION
VALUES FOR MANTEO AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ARE RELATIVELY
LOWER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT STRENGTH, FETCH, AND DIRECTION OF THE WNWERLY WINDS,
THERE MAY BE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE PAM/PUNGO
RIVERS LATER THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044-045-
079-080-090>092-193-198.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ046-047-081-
094-194>196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-080-
081-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ195-199.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-136-137-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...JME/SK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JME/SK/CEB
MARINE...JME/SK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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