216
FXUS62 KMHX 060032
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA USHERING IN A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR EROSION AND COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS IS PROVIDING ENHANCED FORCING FOR THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT.
BROKEN BAND OF STRONG STORMS IS NOW LARGELY OFFSHORE AFTER
PACKING QUITE A PUNCH ACROSS EASTERN NC SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FOR ALL INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL
WATCHING FOR A RISK OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. GRADIENT WINDS ARE EASING
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SW, AND WILL REMAIN
A STEADY 10-15 MPH INLAND AND 15-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CAA, AND LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH NW WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS THIS OCCURS BUT
THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY SO CHANCES OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 0400 WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE WEEKEND
FORECAST THEN A MORE BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE TO START NEXT
WEEK, BUT THEN FOLLOWED LATER IN THE PERIOD, CONFIDENCE AGAIN
DECREASES WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST DETAILS (MORESO THAN YOUR
USUAL 5-7 DAY FORECAST).
LATE WEEK...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT FINISHES WITH ITS
PIVOT ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. CARRY A MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING, BUT
CAA AT THE SFC AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
LEADS TO CALMING, CLEARING, AND COOLING. FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS FLA TO THE ATLANTIC, RETURNING LOWER LEVELS TO SERLY
FLOW REGIME, REVERSING THE COOLING/TREND FROM THURSDAY. 50/30 THU,
60/45 FRI.
WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MINUTE ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST AFTER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FRI. LOW DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACNW THURS AND FRI IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK AS THE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED FOR HOW IT WILL INTERACT BETWEEN THE NERN
STREAM WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SERN STREAM PATTERN
ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG RIDGING ISN'T NARROW. HOW
THIS WAVE EVOLVES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD/NON-EXTREME SOLUTION
WHICH CALLS FOR THE DECAYING WAVE TO GET PICKED UP BY THE NERN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY FROPA
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
EVERYTHING WORKS OUT WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM, IT'S MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED MCVS WILL WORK OVERHEAD LEADING TO
CLOUDIER SKIES AND AT LEAST A SCHC-CHC POP CENTERED AROUND FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK...NATURALLY, LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE
THING WE DON'T HAVE A CLEAR VIEW OF YET. NERN STREAM TROUGH
ALOFT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY WITH WEAKER SERN STREAM
TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ON JUST HOW MUCH THE
SERN SYSTEM SLOTHS BEHIND. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRY
FOR NEXT WEEK BANKING ON SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS TO ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX
QUIET. WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A
LITTLE MORE WET AND DYNAMIC.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TONIGHT AS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A
BROKEN BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BUT STAY AT A STEADY 10-15
KT (EXCEPT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS). ON THU WINDS
BECOME NW WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BASES AT
VFR LEVELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 0345 WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL SWERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
FRIDAY. FLIGHT CATS COULD DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND WITH FROPA
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES IN EASTERN NC THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS
REACHING STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WITH SEAS UP TO 15-18 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON TOP OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BOTH
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH AREA
WATERS THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 60+
MPH WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS.
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 6-11 FT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUNDS AND INLAND RIVERS WITH LOW END
NW GALES REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING BRIEFLY TO END THE WEEK WITH
WERLY 10-20KT WINDS AND 2-5FT SEAS FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT UPPING WINDS, SEAS,
AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY TIMES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT, OPTED TO DROP ALL MAINLAND
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AS AREA GAUGES SHOWED LITTLE MEANINGFUL
WATER RISES. COASTAL FLOOD REMAINS FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
TONIGHT (STRONG PREFRONTAL SERLY FLOW)
- MINOR BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUN-UP, AND LOCALIZED OCEAN OVER-
WASH FOR S AND SE FACING BEACHES. GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
ALONG OCRACOKE ISLAND WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR
HATTERAS.
THURSDAY (STRONG POSTFRONTAL WERLY FLOW)
- GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY HINTED AT A SECOND ROUND OF WATER
RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE IN THE
POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
1-2 FEET.
W-WNWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY APPROACHING
GALE FORCE, STRONGEST OVER A LINE FROM PAMLICO RIVER OVER
PAMLICO SOUND. BEST CHANCE FOR INUNDATION OCRACOKE AND THE SERN
EXTENT OF HATTERAS ISLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR SIMILAR INUNDATION
VALUES FOR MANTEO AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ARE RELATIVELY
LOWER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT STRENGTH, FETCH, AND DIRECTION OF THE WNWERLY WINDS,
THERE MAY BE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE PAM/PUNGO
RIVERS LATER THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ195-199.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ131-230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-150-152-
154-156-158-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...JME/SK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JME/MS/CEB
MARINE...JME/SK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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