084
FXUS62 KMHX 060840
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA USHERING IN A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE
BUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT, WHICH WILL PUSH
ACROSS ENC AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS ENC WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
APPOX THE 900-750 MB LAYER BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
MID-MORNING. KRAX RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS APPROACHING THE
I-95 CORRIDOR BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP REGULATED TO MAINLY A FEW
SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES ACROSS ENC. STRONG CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND WILL SEE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
SLACKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CHILLY TEMPS WITH LOWS AROUND
FREEZING INLAND AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM THURS... WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO FOCUS. A RATHER
BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN NEARING ENC AFTER MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A JET STREAK NOTED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON FRI WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE NOTED IN THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH ESE'WARDS ON FRIDAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG THIS
ZONAL FLOW WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK E'WARDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WHILE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY ADVANCES
E'WARDS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY SAT MORNING KEEPING
ENC DRY AND MO CLEAR. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SAT MORNING AS
WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN MORE WSW TO SW'RLY AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX
AND LOW 60S INLAND WHILE LOWS GET INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
UPPER AN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT WE SEE AT THE
SURFACE. THOUGH SOME THINGS ARE COMING INTO FOCUS FOR THIS
WEEKENDS WEATHER. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE EAST
COAST BY SUN WHILE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES E'WARDS. AT THE MID LEVELS, SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GETTING STRETCHED OUT ON SUN
WHILE UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES E'WARDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS NC
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER WEST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND
TRACKS ENE'WARD ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. HOW DEEP AND HOW STRONG THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST IS WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THE ENTIRE AREA GETS PRECIP OR IF
NO PRECIP OCCURS ACROSS ENC THIS WEEKEND. AS OF RIGHT NOW GFS
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS
FURTHER NORTH MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS ENC
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE ECWMF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW ALLOWING MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
PRECIP FREE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE JUST KEPT
ENC MO CLOUDY WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S ON SAT TO THE 40S TO
50S ON SUN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE LOWS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DOWNTREND THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK... CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THIS WEEKEND. WEAK S'RN STREAM TROUGH LAGS BEHIND MID-ATLANTIC
SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ON JUST HOW THESE TWO TROUGHS
INTERACT. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST SOLUTION AS I AM
BANKING ON SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX QUIET. WITH THAT
SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE MORE WET
AND DYNAMIC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED CIGS TO REMAIN VFR, MAINLY
AROUND 3.5-5K FT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS RTES AROUND DAYBREAK BRINGING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 KT, WHICH MAY BRING CROSS WIND CONCERNS
AT ISO AND EWN RUNAWAY 4R/22L. WINDS WILL SLACKEN FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS... PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF ENC BRINGING A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. AS THIS OCCURS
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND
TRACK E'WARDS JUST SOUTH OF ENC ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5-8 FT ACROSS MOST WATERS, EXPECT TO AROUND
25-30 KT AND 10-12 FT SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOME TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 4-6 FT WHILE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 7-9 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...GALES SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO THE WEST. 10-20 KT
W'RLY WINDS FRI MORNING BACK TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO A NW'RLY DIRECTION, AND BRINGING SOME LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY SAT INTO SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10- 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. 4 TO 6
FT SEAS FRI MORNING MAY BRIEFLY LOWER DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI
AFTERNOON BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS SEAS QUICKLY BUILDS BACK TO
4 TO 7 FT FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT BEFORE FINALLY
LOWERING ON SUN TO 2 TO 5 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY TIMES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT, OPTED TO DROP ALL MAINLAND
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AS AREA GAUGES SHOWED LITTLE MEANINGFUL
WATER RISES. COASTAL FLOOD REMAINS FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
TONIGHT (STRONG PREFRONTAL SERLY FLOW)
- MINOR BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUN-UP, AND LOCALIZED OCEAN OVER-
WASH FOR S AND SE FACING BEACHES. GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
ALONG OCRACOKE ISLAND WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR
HATTERAS.
THURSDAY (STRONG POSTFRONTAL WERLY FLOW)
- GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY HINTED AT A SECOND ROUND OF WATER
RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE IN THE
POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
1-2 FEET.
W-WNWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY APPROACHING
GALE FORCE, STRONGEST OVER A LINE FROM PAMLICO RIVER OVER
PAMLICO SOUND. BEST CHANCE FOR INUNDATION OCRACOKE AND THE SERN
EXTENT OF HATTERAS ISLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR SIMILAR INUNDATION
VALUES FOR MANTEO AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ARE RELATIVELY
LOWER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT STRENGTH, FETCH, AND DIRECTION OF THE WNWERLY WINDS,
THERE MAY BE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE PAM/PUNGO
RIVERS LATER THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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