520
FXUS62 KMHX 061754
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AM UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE
BUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT NOW OFFSHORE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS ENC WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN APPOX THE
900-750 MB LAYER BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SPRINKLES
NOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SEE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
SLACKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CHILLY TEMPS WITH LOWS AROUND
FREEZING INLAND AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM THURS... WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO FOCUS. A
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN NEARING ENC AFTER
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A JET STREAK NOTED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON FRI WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS
TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE NOTED IN THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY PUSH ESE'WARDS ON FRIDAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK E'WARDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY
ADVANCES E'WARDS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY SAT MORNING
KEEPING ENC DRY AND MO CLEAR. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SAT MORNING AS
WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN MORE WSW TO SW'RLY AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX
AND LOW 60S INLAND WHILE LOWS GET INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN UPPER AN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT WE SEE
AT THE SURFACE. THOUGH SOME THINGS ARE COMING INTO FOCUS FOR
THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SUN WHILE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES E'WARDS. AT THE MID LEVELS,
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GETTING STRETCHED OUT
ON SUN WHILE UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES E'WARDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACK
ACROSS NC POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER
WEST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND TRACKS ENE'WARD ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. HOW DEEP AND HOW STRONG THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST IS WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THE ENTIRE AREA GETS PRECIP OR IF
NO PRECIP OCCURS ACROSS ENC THIS WEEKEND. AS OF RIGHT NOW GFS
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS
FURTHER NORTH MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS ENC
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE ECWMF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW ALLOWING MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
PRECIP FREE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE JUST KEPT
ENC MO CLOUDY WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S ON SAT TO THE 40S TO
50S ON SUN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE LOWS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DOWNTREND THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK... CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. WEAK S'RN STREAM TROUGH LAGS
BEHIND MID- ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ON JUST HOW
THESE TWO TROUGHS INTERACT. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTION AS I AM BANKING ON SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS TO ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX
QUIET. WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A
LITTLE MORE WET AND DYNAMIC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR, MAINLY AROUND 4-5K
FT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED FOLLOWING THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT OBSERVED
ACROSS ENC, WHICH MAY BRING CROSS WIND CONCERNS AT ISO AND EWN
RUNAWAY 4R/22L. WINDS WILL SLACKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS... PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF ENC BRINGING A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. AS THIS OCCURS
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND
TRACK E'WARDS JUST SOUTH OF ENC ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW W-WNW WINDS 15-25 KT
GUSTING 25-35 KT WITH SEAS 5-9 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AM UPDATE. WNW WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOME TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE WHERE
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 4-6 FT WHILE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 7-9 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCAS AND GALES CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...GALES SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO THE WEST. 10-20 KT
W'RLY WINDS FRI MORNING BACK TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO A NW'RLY DIRECTION, AND BRINGING SOME LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY SAT INTO SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10- 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. 4 TO 6
FT SEAS FRI MORNING MAY BRIEFLY LOWER DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI
AFTERNOON BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS SEAS QUICKLY BUILDS BACK TO
4 TO 7 FT FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT BEFORE FINALLY
LOWERING ON SUN TO 2 TO 5 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 445 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM OCRACOKE TO THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCRACOKE AND CORE BANKS BEACHES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
WHILE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT,
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS W'RLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO OCRACOKE.
TODAY (STRONG POSTFRONTAL WERLY FLOW)
- GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SECOND ROUND OF MINOR WATER
RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE IN THE
POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
UP TO 1 FOOT.
W-WNWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY APPROACHING
GALE FORCE, STRONGEST OVER A LINE FROM PAMLICO RIVER OVER
PAMLICO SOUND. BEST CHANCE FOR INUNDATION WILL BE FROM OCRACOKE
NORTHWARDS TOWARDS DUCK. PROBABILITIES FOR SIMILAR INUNDATION
VALUES FOR MANTEO AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT STRENGTH, FETCH, AND DIRECTION OF THE WNWERLY WINDS,
THERE MAY BE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE PAM/PUNGO
RIVERS LATER THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF/ZC
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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