404
FXUS62 KMHX 061901
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AM UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE
BUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT NOW OFFSHORE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS ENC WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN APPOX THE
900-750 MB LAYER BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SPRINKLES
NOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG CAA RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SEE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
SLACKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CHILLY TEMPS WITH LOWS AROUND
FREEZING INLAND AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM THURS... WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS ARE GRADUALLY
COMING INTO FOCUS. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
NEARING ENC AFTER MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL
IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
6-10 DAY TIME FROM (MARCH 11-15)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN UPPER AN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT WE SEE
AT THE SURFACE. THOUGH SOME THINGS ARE COMING INTO FOCUS FOR
THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SUN WHILE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES E'WARDS. AT THE MID LEVELS,
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GETTING STRETCHED OUT
ON SUN WHILE UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES E'WARDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACK
ACROSS NC POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT
STALLS TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER WEST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND TRACKS ENE'WARD ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOW DEEP AND HOW
STRONG THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THE
ENTIRE AREA GETS ANY PRECIP OR NOT THIS WEEKEND. AS OF RIGHT NOW
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS
FURTHER NORTH MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS ENC
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE ECWMF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW ALLOWING MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
PRECIP FREE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE JUST KEPT
ENC MO CLOUDY WITH CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S ON SAT TO THE 40S TO 50S ON
SUN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWNTREND THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDS SUPPORT A DRIER FORECAST
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS. WEAK S'RN STREAM
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND MID- ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW THESE TWO TROUGHS INTERACT. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST SOLUTION AS SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX QUIET.
WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE
MORE WET AND DYNAMIC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THU WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MON AND 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR, MAINLY AROUND 4-5K
FT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED FOLLOWING THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT OBSERVED
ACROSS ENC, WHICH MAY BRING CROSS WIND CONCERNS AT ISO AND EWN
RUNAWAY 4R/22L. WINDS WILL SLACKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURS... PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF ENC BRINGING A LOW END
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. AS THIS OCCURS LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACK
E'WARDS JUST SOUTH OF ENC ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5-8 FT ACROSS MOST WATERS, EXPECT TO AROUND
25-30 KT AND 10-12 FT SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOME TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 4-6 FT WHILE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 7-9 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO THE WEST. SW WINDS
15-25 KT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHIFT W/NW 15-20
KT LATER SAT OR SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY THE FLOW SHOULD BE N TO NW 10-15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 5 TO 8 FT SEAS FRI INTO EARLY SAT ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT LATER SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN
3-5 FT LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 445 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM OCRACOKE TO THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCRACOKE AND CORE BANKS BEACHES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
WHILE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT,
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS W'RLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO OCRACOKE.
TODAY (STRONG POSTFRONTAL WERLY FLOW)
- GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SECOND ROUND OF MINOR WATER
RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE IN THE
POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
UP TO 1 FOOT.
W-WNWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY APPROACHING
GALE FORCE, STRONGEST OVER A LINE FROM PAMLICO RIVER OVER
PAMLICO SOUND. BEST CHANCE FOR INUNDATION WILL BE FROM OCRACOKE
NORTHWARDS TOWARDS DUCK. PROBABILITIES FOR SIMILAR INUNDATION
VALUES FOR MANTEO AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT STRENGTH, FETCH, AND DIRECTION OF THE WNWERLY WINDS,
THERE MAY BE LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE PAM/PUNGO
RIVERS LATER THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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