133
FXUS62 KMHX 070318
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1020 PM THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES THIS
EVENING CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
POLEWARD. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE INLAND BUT REMAIN GUSTY ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH EXERTS FULL CONTROL. CHILLY TEMPS WITH
LOWS AROUND FREEZING INLAND AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, GRADUALLY SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST, WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-WEST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES, PC SKIES AND W/WSW FLOW SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND MID 50S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM THURS... WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS ARE GRADUALLY
COMING INTO FOCUS. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
NEARING ENC AFTER MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL
IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
6-10 DAY TIME FROM (MARCH 11-15)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN UPPER AN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT WE SEE
AT THE SURFACE. THOUGH SOME THINGS ARE COMING INTO FOCUS FOR
THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SUN WHILE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES E'WARDS. AT THE MID LEVELS,
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GETTING STRETCHED OUT
ON SUN WHILE UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES E'WARDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACK
ACROSS NC POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT
STALLS TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER WEST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND TRACKS ENE'WARD ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOW DEEP AND HOW
STRONG THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THE
ENTIRE AREA GETS ANY PRECIP OR NOT THIS WEEKEND. AS OF RIGHT NOW
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS
FURTHER NORTH MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS ENC
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE ECWMF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW ALLOWING MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
PRECIP FREE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE JUST KEPT
ENC MO CLOUDY WITH CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S ON SAT TO THE 40S TO 50S ON
SUN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWNTREND THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDS SUPPORT A DRIER FORECAST
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS. WEAK S'RN STREAM
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND MID- ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW THESE TWO TROUGHS INTERACT. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST SOLUTION AS SFC HIGH AND NWERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SOLIDLY DRY AIR OVERHEAD, KEEPING WX QUIET.
WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE
MORE WET AND DYNAMIC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THU WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MON AND 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SAT/...
AS OF 715 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES ATTEMPTS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE AND EASTERN CANADA. CLEAR SKIES NOW HOLD OVER
ALL BUT THE OUTER BANKS AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE
EASING BUT REMAINING STEADY OUT OF THE WEST. FLOW BACKS
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURS...PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF ENC BRINGING A LOW END
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. AS THIS OCCURS LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACK
E'WARDS JUST SOUTH OF ENC ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 225 PM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW W-WNW WINDS 15-25 KT GUSTING
25-35 KT WITH SEAS 5-8 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS). HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE DAY FRI. WNW WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 20-35 KT THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND, WITH SCAS FOR
THE NORTHERN SOUNDS/RIVERS AND WESTERN RIVERS. THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOME TODAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3-5 FT WHILE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 6-9 FT. WIND AND
SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NW
WINDS 10-20 KT TO START OFF EARLY FRI MORNING, BECOMING SW 10-15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE
PAMLICO/PUNGO RVRS TONIGHT GIVEN THE PERIOD OF STRONG WNW FLOW.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED NAVIGATIONAL CONCERNS, BUT RIGHT
NOW LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO THE WEST. SW WINDS
15-25 KT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHIFT W/NW 15-20
KT LATER SAT OR SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY THE FLOW SHOULD BE N TO NW 10-15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 5 TO 8 FT SEAS FRI INTO EARLY SAT ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT LATER SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN
3-5 FT LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 225 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM OCRACOKE TO THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
W-WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS (NORTHERN OBX DOWN TO TO OCRACOKE)...WITH MAX
INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL UP TO 1 FOOT.
GIVEN THE STRONG WNW WINDS, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL LOW WATER
CONCERNS FOR THE PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY, BUT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
NAVIGATIONAL ISSUES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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