459
FXUS62 KMHX 071506
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TOUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NE WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW REFLECTION MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
VEERING WINDS TO SW THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP
ALLOWING FOR AROUND 5 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY AND
EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60 INLAND AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE. ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY AND AND WILL NOT SEE AN PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY MILD AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, ENC WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WEATHERWISE, AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OR TWO AT SOME PRECIP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO
A VERY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME (MARCH 11-15).
SATURDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SAT. AT THE SAME TIME A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E'WARDS INTO THE PLAINS
AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT. AT THE MID LEVELS, A
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST, A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING
E'WARDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE IMPACTING THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE, A PRIMARILY DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING ACROSS ENC SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MOSTLY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THOUGH WITH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTING AT A FEW
SHOWERS DID KEEP SOME SCHC POP'S IN THE FORCAST FOR OUR NE'RN
ZONES. WITH STEADY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, HIGHS GENERALLY GET INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS
ENC WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR SUN AND MON. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WHILE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE
COAST MON NIGHT WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT. AT THE
MID LEVELS CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN
SOME ON SUN, PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. BOTH
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW HAVE
SLOWED DOWN SOME AND WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEEPENING MORE, THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN AVG
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AND MON. FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN MORNING WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND RIDES E'WARDS EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF
THE FL/GA COAST MON MORNING/AFTERNOON AND DEEPENING. WITH THE
SLOWED TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE SURFACE PATTERN
HAS ALSO SLOWED RESULTING IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ON SUN WITH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NOTED ON MON AS WHATEVER LOW DEVELOPS
MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC. WILL NOTE THERE IS A
RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FOR POP'S AND IF THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP
BEING MORE SUPPRESSED THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WE COULD STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS, WHILE A FURTHER NORTH TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. EITHER WAY HAVE SCHC
TO LOW END CHC POP'S ACROSS ENC ON SUN AND CHC POPS ON MON.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO ENC BUT GIVEN
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW WONT DETAIL SPECIFICS JUST YET. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS ON SUN AND MON RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
THE AREA ON THURS AS WELL. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ENC
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BUT BASES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 8K
FT. LIGHT W-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO SW THIS AFTERNOON
AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A STRONG LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AS WELL WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 50 KT AT 925
MB DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING LLWS
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...START THE PERIOD OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VIS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART ON
SAT. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCURS SUN INTO MON AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF NC ON SUN
AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND
LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM THU...CURRENTLY SEEING NW AROUND 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND SEAS
AROUND 4-7 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5-15 KT AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING
TO 15-25 KT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 2-5 FT TODAY BUT THEN BUILD BACK TO 4-7
FT TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS.
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL MID DAY. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINING WATERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...ONGOING SCA'S WILL BE NOTED SAT MORNING
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS ELEVATED
SW'RLY FLOW AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST HERE. ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AND MUCH LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO 2-5 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FULLY PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRACKS SE'WARDS ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE DOWN TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS TO LOWER DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY SAT EVENING THUS
ENDING SCA'S ACROSS ALL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A N'RLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN
REMAIN N'RLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS ON
SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO
THE NORTH. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THEN
OCCURS ON MON INTO TUE MORNING AS A DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACKS E'WARDS OFF THE SC/NC COAST.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, WE COULD SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE AGAIN
ON MON ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BUILD
BACK TO 4-6 FT MON EVENING AS WELL. LOW THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA
ON TUE ALLOWING MORE BENIGN WEATHER TO RETURN TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/ZC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
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