682
FXUS62 KMHX 072034
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ENC TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
YIELDED WAA, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID-50S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH OVERNIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS, EXPECTING LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID-40S INLAND TO
NEAR 50 BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER TODAY,
SO EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH STEADY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, HIGHS
GENERALLY GET INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS ENC WITH LOWS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, ENC WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WEATHERWISE, AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OR TWO AT LEAST SOME PRECIP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME (MARCH 11-15).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR SUN AND MON. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WHILE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE
COAST MON NIGHT WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT. AT THE
MID LEVELS CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN
SOME ON SUN, PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. BOTH
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW HAVE
SLOWED DOWN SOME AND WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEEPENING MORE, THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN AVG
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AND MON. FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN MORNING WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND RIDES E'WARDS EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF
THE FL/GA COAST MON MORNING/AFTERNOON AND DEEPENING. WITH THE
SLOWED TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE SURFACE PATTERN
HAS ALSO SLOWED RESULTING IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ON SUN WITH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NOTED ON MON AS WHATEVER LOW DEVELOPS
MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC. WILL NOTE THERE IS A
RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FOR POP'S AND IF THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP
BEING MORE SUPPRESSED THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WE COULD STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS, WHILE A FURTHER NORTH TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. EITHER WAY HAVE SCHC
TO LOW END CHC POP'S ACROSS ENC ON SUN AND CHC POPS ON MON.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO ENC BUT GIVEN
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW WONT DETAIL SPECIFICS JUST YET. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS ON SUN AND MON RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
THE AREA ON THURS AS WELL. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
CLOUD BASES ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 8 KFT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT,
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (40-50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
LLJ IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING (GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS POSSIBLE) BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...START THE PERIOD OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY EVENING, STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VIS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE MOST PART ON SAT. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
OCCURS SUN INTO MON AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF NC ON SUN AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM THU...CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS (HIGHEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
AND CRYSTAL COAST) WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...ONGOING SCA'S WILL BE NOTED SAT MORNING
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS ELEVATED
SW'RLY FLOW AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST HERE. ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AND MUCH LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO 2-5 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FULLY PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRACKS SE'WARDS ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE DOWN TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS TO LOWER DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY SAT EVENING THUS
ENDING SCA'S ACROSS ALL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A N'RLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN
REMAIN N'RLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS ON
SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO
THE NORTH. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THEN
OCCURS ON MON INTO TUE MORNING AS A DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACKS E'WARDS OFF THE SC/NC COAST.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, WE COULD SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE AGAIN
ON MON ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BUILD
BACK TO 4-6 FT MON EVENING AS WELL. LOW THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA
ON TUE ALLOWING MORE BENIGN WEATHER TO RETURN TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/ZC
MARINE...JME/ZC
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