254
FXUS62 KMHX 072104
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ENC TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
YIELDED WAA, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID-50S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH OVERNIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS, EXPECTING LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID-40S INLAND TO
NEAR 50 BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ITS
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WETTER TODAY, SO EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WITH STEADY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, HIGHS GENERALLY GET INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS
ENC WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, ENC WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WEATHERWISE, AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OR TWO AT LEAST SOME PRECIP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME (MARCH 11-15).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR SUN AND MON. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WHILE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE
COAST MON NIGHT WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT. AT THE
MID LEVELS CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN
SOME ON SUN, PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. BOTH
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW HAVE
SLOWED DOWN SOME AND WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEEPENING MORE, THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN AVG
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AND MON. FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN MORNING WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND RIDES E'WARDS EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF
THE FL/GA COAST MON MORNING/AFTERNOON AND DEEPENING. WITH THE
SLOWED TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE SURFACE PATTERN
HAS ALSO SLOWED RESULTING IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ON SUN WITH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NOTED ON MON AS WHATEVER LOW DEVELOPS
MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC. WILL NOTE THERE IS A
RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FOR POP'S AND IF THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP
BEING MORE SUPPRESSED THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WE COULD STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS, WHILE A FURTHER NORTH TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. EITHER WAY HAVE SCHC
TO LOW END CHC POP'S ACROSS ENC ON SUN AND CHC POPS ON MON.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO ENC BUT GIVEN
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW WONT DETAIL SPECIFICS JUST YET. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS ON SUN AND MON RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
THE AREA ON THURS AS WELL. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ENC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
CLOUD BASES ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 8 KFT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
TONIGHT, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (40-50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLJ IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING
(GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE) BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATER IN
THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCURS
SUN INTO MON AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THIS STALLED FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS (HIGHEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
AND CRYSTAL COAST) WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT. SCAS CONTINUE SAT MORNING
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS ELEVATED
SW'RLY FLOW AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST HERE. ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AND MUCH LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO 2-5 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FULLY PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRACKS SE'WARDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI... THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE DOWN TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS TO LOWER DOWN TO 2-4 FT
BY SAT EVENING THUS ENDING SCA'S ACROSS ALL WATERS. IN ADDITION
TO THIS, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A N'RLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN N'RLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
ACROSS OUR WATERS ON SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THEN OCCURS ON MON INTO TUE MORNING AS A
DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACKS
E'WARDS OFF THE SC/NC COAST. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, WE COULD
SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE AGAIN ON MON ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT MON EVENING AS WELL.
LOW THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA ON TUE ALLOWING MORE BENIGN WEATHER
TO RETURN TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/ZC
MARINE...JME/ZC
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