290
FXUS62 KMHX 080020
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH OVERNIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS, EXPECTING LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID-40S INLAND TO
UPPER 40S BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ITS
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WETTER TODAY, SO EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WITH STEADY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, HIGHS GENERALLY GET INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS
ENC WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, ENC WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WEATHERWISE, AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OR TWO AT LEAST SOME PRECIP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME (MARCH 11-15).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE MOST COMPLEX PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR SUN AND MON. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WHILE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE
COAST MON NIGHT WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT. AT THE
MID LEVELS CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN
SOME ON SUN, PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. BOTH
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW HAVE
SLOWED DOWN SOME AND WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEEPENING MORE, THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN AVG
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AND MON. FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN MORNING WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND RIDES E'WARDS EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF
THE FL/GA COAST MON MORNING/AFTERNOON AND DEEPENING. WITH THE
SLOWED TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THE SURFACE PATTERN
HAS ALSO SLOWED RESULTING IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ON SUN WITH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NOTED ON MON AS WHATEVER LOW DEVELOPS
MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC. WILL NOTE THERE IS A
RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FOR POP'S AND IF THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP
BEING MORE SUPPRESSED THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WE COULD STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS, WHILE A FURTHER NORTH TRACK COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. EITHER WAY HAVE SCHC
TO LOW END CHC POP'S ACROSS ENC ON SUN AND CHC POPS ON MON.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO ENC BUT GIVEN
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW WONT DETAIL SPECIFICS JUST YET. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS ON SUN AND MON RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
THE AREA ON THURS AS WELL. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TUE-THU.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ENC EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
(40-50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BRINGING LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION. LLJ IS THEN EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS TOMORROW (GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE) BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND A FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCURS
SUN INTO MON AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF NC ON SUN AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THIS STALLED FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL SOON
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST TRENDS
SHOW A FORMIDABLE SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
AND SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS A RESULT
(THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON).
WINDS SAT MORNING REMAIN SW'RLY AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS AND 5-8 FT SEAS. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
SOME BY SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FULLY PUSHES OUT TO
SEA AND A COLD FRONT TRACKS SE'WARDS ACROSS THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE N AT 15-25 KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN N'RLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH
2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS ON SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THEN OCCURS ON MON INTO TUE MORNING
AS A DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
TRACKS E'WARDS OFF THE SC/NC COAST. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH,
WE COULD SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE AGAIN ON MON ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT MON EVENING
AS WELL. LOW THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA ON TUE ALLOWING MORE BENIGN
WEATHER TO RETURN TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/ZC
MARINE...JME/SGK/ZC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page