571
FXUS62 KMHX 081443
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING
OUR NEXT THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING TAKING THE LINGERING CLOUDS
ALONG THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH IT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SW TO W
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. WINDS BECOME N BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE OBX COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARE TODAY WITH THE OBX SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S, UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TO THE GA COAST
TONIGHT WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY'S AND TUESDAY'S
FORECAST, BUT AN IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR ENC.
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH TUE. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES OFFSHORE ON SUN
WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MON AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS TROUGHING COULD
TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER LOW AT THE SURFACE AS IT
TRACKS NEAR THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS CLOSED
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN SOME ON SUN, PUSHING
OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LOW BUT, AS STATED ABOVE, THE TILT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHAT THE AMBIENT WEATHER
WILL BE AT THE SURFACE.
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF NC ON SUN MORNING WHILE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND RIDES E'WARDS
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA COAST MON MORNING/AFTERNOON AND
DEEPENING. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH, PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ON SUN AND AS A RESULT ONLY HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AS RECENT MODEL
TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS ENC. AS WE GET INTO
MON THE SURFACE LOW MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC BEFORE
THE LOW PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE EVEN AS WE HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
TIME TO ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE GFS/NAM BEING THE STRONGEST AND
FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS, THE CANADIAN BEING THE WEAKEST AND FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION, AND THE ECWMF IN THE MIDDLE. WITH BOTH GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO
THE LOWS STRENGTH AND TRACK, ELECTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECWMF
SOLUTION WHICH PROMOTES GUSTY E AND THEN N WINDS ON MON INTO TUE AND
WIDESPREAD CHC POP'S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDER ALONG THE GULF
STREAM. AS STATED ABOVE, THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS QUITE
LARGE AND A RATHER SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE NOTED. GIVEN
THIS, LEFT HIGH END CHC POP'S AT MOST IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
WE CAN GET FURTHER CLARIFICATION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND HOW STRONG
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CAN GET. ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
GETS TO ENC AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE, BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WONT DETAIL
SPECIFICS JUST YET. BY TUE, WHATEVER LOW DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY PUSH
OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER TO
RETURN TO ENC. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS
ON SUN AND MON RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. BY TUES HIGHS GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLAT AND BROAD UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT QUICKLY PUSH
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO QUICKLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. RECENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR DRY WEATHER FROM WED ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS WELL AS A PRIMARILY DRY
FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ALONG SOUTHERN RTES. A STRONG LLJ OVER THE AREA IS BRINGING
LLWS CONCERNS BUT SHOULD END BY 14Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE
BL BECOME DEEPER MIXED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SW TO W
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN RTES AROUND 18Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING NLY AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON REACHING SOUTHERN RTES BY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCURS
MON INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF NC ON SUN AND
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST INTO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW W-WSW WINDS 10-20 KT
GUSTING 20-25 KT (STRONGEST ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS)
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING
ONSLOW BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE AROUND
20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND HAVE
RAISED A SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS, SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH MID EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH N TO NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT
AND SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY BUT A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE
COULD IMPACT THE AREA WATERS MON INTO TUES
WINDS WILL BE N'RLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS
ON SUN MORNING AS A FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES BY SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS QUICKLY
DETERIORATE MON AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACKS E'WARDS OFF THE SC/NC COAST. THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOWS SPECIFIC TRACK
AND INTENSITY EVEN THIS FAR OUT WITH THE NBM SHOWING A SPREAD IN THE
MODELED WINDS AND GUSTS OF ABOUT 15-20 KTS ON MON AND TUE. AS A
RESULT, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, WE COULD SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE
AGAIN ON MON AND TUE ACROSS OUR WATERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME E'RLY MON MORNING AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS
THEN BACKING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO A N'RLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35 KTS ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE INLAND SOUNDS AND
RIVERS. THESE ELEVATED N'RLY WINDS THEN PERSIST INTO TUE AFTERNOON
BEFORE EASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT MON
AFTERNOON, TO 5-8 FT MON EVENING, AND THEN 6-10 FT BY TUE MORNING.
SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TUE NIGHT AS WINDS EASE BACK DOWN TO
2 TO 5 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF
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