756
FXUS62 KMHX 081919
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
219 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM SAT...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING
TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS 35-40 DEG.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 220 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA, WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY,
HOWEVER AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONT, LIGHT RAIN MAY CREEP UP INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST
FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF HWY 70) SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 50S ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY'S AND TUESDAY'S
FORECAST, BUT AN IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR ENC.
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH TUE. ZONAL FLOW PUSHES
OFFSHORE ON SUN NIGHT WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MON AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUES. RECENT TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS TROUGHING COULD TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR EVEN
A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE COAST WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A STRONGER LOW AT THE SURFACE AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO
THE GULF STATES AND DEEPEN SOME ON SUN, PUSHING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE GENERAL TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL LOW BUT, AS STATED ABOVE, THE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHAT THE AMBIENT WEATHER WILL
BE AT THE SURFACE.
AS WE GET INTO MON THE SURFACE LOW MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TO ENC BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
EVEN AS WE HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN TIME TO ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THE GFS/NAM BEING THE STRONGEST AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS, THE
CANADIAN BEING THE WEAKEST AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION, AND THE
ECWMF IN THE MIDDLE. WITH BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A
FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE LOWS STRENGTH
AND TRACK, ELECTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECWMF SOLUTION WHICH
PROMOTES GUSTY E AND THEN N WINDS ON MON INTO TUE AND WIDESPREAD
CHC POP'S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDER ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
AS STATED ABOVE, THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS QUITE
LARGE AND A RATHER SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE NOTED.
GIVEN THIS, LEFT HIGH END CHC POP'S AT MOST IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET FURTHER CLARIFICATION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND
HOW STRONG THIS DEVELOPING LOW CAN GET. ADDITIONAL COASTAL
IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO ENC AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE,
BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW, WONT DETAIL SPECIFICS JUST YET. BY TUE, WHATEVER
LOW DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY PUSH OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENC. GIVEN AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHS MON RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. BY TUES HIGHS GET
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLAT AND BROAD UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT QUICKLY PUSH
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO QUICKLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CONUS NEARING THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. RECENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR DRY WEATHER FROM WED ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS WELL AS A PRIMARILY DRY
FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT. BREEZY W WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAY SEE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SUN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCURS
MON INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF NC ON SUN AND
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOWER CEILINGS TO ENC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUE AND PERSIST INTO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SAT...A BACKDOOR FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. W WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE AROUND 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS,
SOUNDS, ALLIGATOR RIVER AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUN AS FRONT STALLS WELL
TO THE SOUTH. N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT SUN MORNING, BECOMING
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 4-6 FT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT OVERNIGHT AND 2-4 FT
SUN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY BUT A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE
COULD IMPACT THE AREA WATERS MON INTO TUES
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE MON AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND TRACKS E'WARDS
OFF THE SC/NC COAST. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LOWS SPECIFIC TRACK AND INTENSITY EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A SPREAD IN THE MODELED WINDS AND GUSTS OF
ABOUT 15-20 KTS ON MON AND TUE. AS A RESULT, DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH, WE COULD SEE SCA'S/GALES ONCE AGAIN ON MON
AND TUE ACROSS OUR WATERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME E'RLY MON MORNING AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS THEN
BACKING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO A N'RLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35 KTS ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE INLAND SOUNDS
AND RIVERS. THESE ELEVATED N'RLY WINDS THEN PERSIST INTO TUE
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK
TO 4-6 FT MON AFTERNOON, TO 5-8 FT MON EVENING, AND THEN 6-10 FT
BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TUE NIGHT AS
WINDS EASE BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 5 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 220 PM SAT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON INTO TUE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS,
INCLUDING: GUSTY WINDS, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, LOCALIZED OCEAN
OVERWASH, ROUGH SURF, AND MINOR BEACH EROSION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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