645
FXUS62 KMHX 091104
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
704 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
ACROSS ENC. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THINK THESE
RETURNS ARE JUST VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRECIP FREE TODAY. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS THIS MORNING.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO OUR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
DENOTED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE PLAINS PROGRESSES E'WARDS INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, WHILE AT THE MID LEVELS A POTENT
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALSO PROGRESSES E'WARDS INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD WSW
TO SW'RLY FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT UPPER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO ENC TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME
CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST
RESULTING IN LIGHT N'RLY WINDS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN SHIFTING TO A S-SW'RLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL STALL WELL TO OUR
SOUTH WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT WITH THE MOST NOTABLE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TRACKING E'WARDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN
PRECIP FREE WITH JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE HI-RES AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DRY DAY FOR ENC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PIVOT E'WARDS INTO
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION DOWN STREAM OF THE TROUGH AND AS A RESULT A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE TRANSITING E'WARDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT SUN MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GA/FL COAST BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD ENC OVERNIGHT ALLOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
BEGIN IN EARNEST RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS WELL BY DAY BREAK. WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT SUN AS WELL, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 BEFORE DAYBREAK
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST INCREASING LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT GET INTO UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS ENC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH
WINDS THAT MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS WEEK. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE AND
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT OF PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG THE
MODELS IS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WILL FOLLOW WPC GUIDANCE
CLOSELY WHICH BRING AROUND 1" ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WETTEST
MODELS SHOW UP TO 2" ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND MANY SHOW VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-35
MPH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. AT THIS POINT, THINKING IS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH PROBABILITY
ONLY AROUND 30% OR LESS, HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OBX. THE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60,
THEN WARM TO AROUND 70 INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH GREATER SUNSHINE,
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE OBX IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND 60S COAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS ENC. HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT, SHIFTING FROM A N'RLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A NW AND THEN SW DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST, WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD ENC THIS MORNING. GREATEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 264, THOUGH
CEILINGS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH THE DAY.
MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE GA/SC COAST MON MORNING.
EXPECT CEILINGS TONIGHT TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 KFT, BUT AS WE GET
INTO MON MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OAJ/EWN AND ISO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS RTES. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES CLOSER TO
THE LOW PRESSURE. WINDS VEER FROM EAST MONDAY TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTH OF TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT
INLAND AND 25-35 KT ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND EXPECT PRED VFR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN... AS EXPECTED NE'RLY SURGE OF WINDS BEHIND A
DEPARTING BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD NE'RLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES AND 3-5 FT SEAS
ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY WHILE SEAS LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE NEARING THE FL/GA COAST BY
DAYBREAK MON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WHILE BECOMING NE TO E'RLY.
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND IN THE
ALBEMARLE/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S TO
SE'RLY AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS DO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY HOWEVER
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE GA/SC COAST MONDAY THEN PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT MONDAY MORNING GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
OUT THE DAY, BECOMING NE AROUND 20-30+ KT MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
BECOME NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE TUESDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WHERE
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE REMAINING WATERS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SCA CONDITIONS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. ESPECIALLY
IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROJECTED. SEAS WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AROUND 8-12
FT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, PEAKS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOMES NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE, WHICH TYPICALLY ONLY RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES AT WORST. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG
OCEANSIDE HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS
AND BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT COULD PRODUCE MINOR BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION AND POSSIBLY MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE 4-7 FT BREAKING WAVES ARE
EXPECTED BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COAST LIMITING
THE PUSH OF WATER TO THE DUNE LINE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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