180
FXUS62 KMHX 100112
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM SUN...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL HEAD EAST OVERNIGHT AND TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THIS FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARDS CAPE FEAR, AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BREAKOUT ALONG SOUTHERN ONSLOW COUNTY
AND THE CRYSTAL COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SOME THINNING OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPS SHOULD
COOL EFFICIENTLY HERE WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS PRESENT. HAVE LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NC, AND LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 310 PM SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OVER COASTAL SC/GA MONDAY MORNING, PUSHING OFF
THE SE COAST MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL GRAD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND EAST OF
HWY 17. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. CLOUD COVER, LIGHT RAIN AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO 60 DEG.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH
WINDS THAT MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG
THE MODELS IS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WILL FOLLOW WPC GUIDANCE
CLOSELY WHICH BRING AROUND 1" ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WETTEST
MODELS SHOW UP TO 2" ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND MANY SHOW VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-35
MPH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. AT THIS POINT, THINKING IS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH PROBABILITY
ONLY AROUND 30% OR LESS, HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OBX. THE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 70 INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH
GREATER SUNSHINE, THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
OBX IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND 60S COAST.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING AND WIL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREAFTER, MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS SC AND THEN OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW.
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THERE WILL BE
A GRADIENT IN CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UP
NORTH, INCLUDING KPGV AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD, MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
RAIN, THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING KISO
AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AS
STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN. FINALLY, THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AIRSPACE, INCLUDING KEWN AND KOAJ, WILL SEE THE WORST FLYING
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING, AND
LOWERING TO BELOW 2000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP HERE AS WELL, BUT CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW EVENING FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NC BEFORE CONDITIONS FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SHIFT OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS RTES. HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF SUB-VFR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES CLOSER TO THE LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTH OF
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT INLAND AND 25-35 KT ALONG
THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND EXPECT PRED VFR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SUN...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY MON. LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS
5-15 KT (STRONGEST ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS) AND SEAS
3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF THE SE COAST MON AND
MON AFTERNOON. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MON,
PEAKING AT 20-30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
AND 15-25 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND INLAND RIVERS. HAVE
ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND SCAS FOR THE INLAND RIVERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING, BUILDING TO
6-9 FT MON AFTERNOON (HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE GA/SC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AROUND
8-12 FT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-8 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 310 PM SUN...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN PEAKING OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTH OF OREGON INLET WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE, WHICH TYPICALLY ONLY RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES AT WORST. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG
OCEANSIDE HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT
COULD PRODUCE MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION AND POSSIBLY MINOR
OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE 4-7 FT
BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THE COAST LIMITING THE PUSH OF WATER TO THE DUNE LINE. MINOR
SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVEL RISES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJ
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE/BAY/PAMLICO AND PUNGO RVRS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...CQD/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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