574
FXUS62 KMHX 101735
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 10 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW IMPACTS ENC
STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 1004 MB LOW SITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN GA COASTLINE.
THIS LOW WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE DAY. AS EXPECTED,
WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS ENC
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OBSERVED ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO CREEP ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CRYSTAL
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS
AND STRENGTHENS AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS FURTHER. THIS
LOW SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TOWARDS THE NC/SC BORDER BY MON
EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND EAST OF HWY 17. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FOR RAIN CHANCES AND
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP'S RELEGATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND EAST OF HWY 17 WITH SCHC TO CHC
POP'S ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THAT THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST OCCURS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DRY TIME AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
BRIEFLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO ENC FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
POPS WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER, LIGHT RAIN, AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD
COASTAL ENC TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARDS WHILE QUICKLY STRENGTHENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, AS THIS OCCURS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY
RESULTING IN WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-35 MPH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS
UP NEAR 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. AT THIS POINT,
THINKING IS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
PROBABILITY ONLY AROUND 30/40% OR LESS, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OBX.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP THEN BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS ENC TONIGHT AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON TUE. THE AIRMASS
NORTH OF THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. AS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS PRECIP, THERE WILL BE A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE GREATEST DISPARITY
AMONG THE MODELS IS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW WPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH BRING AROUND 0.5-1" ACROSS
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. WETTEST MODELS SHOW UP TO 1.5" ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND MANY SHOW VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAIN LOWS TONIGHT
GET INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OBX.
THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 430 AM MON...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO EASTERN NC FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS TODAY'S COASTAL LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY SPOTTY REMNANT SHOWERS LIKELY OVER
THE OUTER BANKS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND RAPID ADVECTION OF DRY AIR WILL AID IN SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND, BUT
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP OBX CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND EXPECT ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MAY
THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. FOR NOW, KEPT POPS CONFINED OFFSHORE.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE IS QUITE GOOD FOR A DAY 6-7 FORECAST, AND
CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT, WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY,
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING
AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH, AND MOISTURE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY. AS USUAL, DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS AND WE ENCOURAGE USERS TO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MON... A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY
NOTED ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST, AND THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
ENC THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
CEILINGS HAVE STEADILY LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH ALL
TAF SITES REPORTING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UP NORTH, INCLUDING KPGV
AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING KISO AND
LOCATIONS EASTWARD, MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADIER RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT. FINALLY, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE, INCLUDING KEWN AND KOAJ, WILL SEE THE
WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING FURTHER TO IFR. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL HAS A LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF SEEING IFR AT TAF
SITES BUT DEPICTS A HIGHER CHANCE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST (WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT MRH), SO
WHILE TAFS DO NOT EXPLICITLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS, HAVE INCLUDED
A SCT DECK AT EWN/OAJ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM ENC AND CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
ONLY OTHER THING TO NOTE WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND OBX WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT. INLAND 10-15 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
WHILE ALONG THE COAST AND OBX 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MON...WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20 KT INLAND AND 25-35 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PREDOMINANTLY VFR PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
-RAPIDLY DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW IMPACTS THE REGION.
ITS THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING AND A DEEPENING LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR GA/FL.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AT 5-15 KTS COMING FROM AN E TO NE
DIRECTION ACROSS ALL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS NOTED TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
WIDESPREAD 2-4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE LATER TODAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR FL/GA THIS MORNING PUSHES NE'WARDS WHILE
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING. THIS LOW WILL MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TO ENC TONIGHT. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, PEAKING AT 20-30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS AND 15-25 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND INLAND RIVERS
WHILE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET 5-15 KT E WINDS
WILL BE NOTED. AS THE LOW NEARS OUR COAST AND BEGINS TO PUSH OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NE AND THE
N DIRECTION WHILE STRENGTHENING FURTHER WITH 25-30 KT NE-N
WINDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
25-35 KT NE-N WINDS AND 40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE UPGRADED
THE PAMLICO SOUND TO A GALE WARNING AND KEPT ALL ONGOING GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
FURTHER NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP AROUND 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE REST OF OUR WATERS AND
AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHERN SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH
STARTS TONIGHT AND LEFT THE OTHER SMALL CRAFTS ALONE. SEAS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND TO THE STRONG WINDS INCREASING TO 6-9 FT SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY GETTING TO 8-12 FT BY
TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHER WATERS 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4-6 FT THIS EVENING AND THEN 6-8 FT BY TUE MORNING. THESE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO EASE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MON... SEAS PEAK TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 8-12 FT
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH AREA WATERS, RAISING THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD GALES AND DANGEROUS OFFSHORE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 445 AM MON...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OFF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN PEAKING OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH SURF
WILL REMAIN A RISK, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT COULD PRODUCE MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION
AND POSSIBLY MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE
LOOKOUT WHERE 4-7 FT BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED BUT THE WINDS
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COAST LIMITING THE PUSH OF WATER TO THE
DUNE LINE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A COUPLE FEET BELOW HIGH SURF
CRITERIA AND OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINE HERE.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED SOUNDSIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVEL RISES IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, AND LESS SO FOR THE PAMLICO
AND PUNGO RIVERS. GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUNDSIDE FORECAST
WINDS AND SUPPORT FROM RELIABLE GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, S CRAVEN AND E CARTERET FOR
UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, RISES UP TO 2 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-194-196.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/ZC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/ZC
MARINE...MS/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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