932
FXUS62 KMHX 101953
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EAST CARTERET, OCRACOKE ISLAND,
AND HATTERAS ISLAND
- STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD
COASTAL ENC TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS
TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 1005 MB LOW SITUATED ALONG GA/SC COASTLINE. AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE LOW, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD ENC WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OBSERVATIONS NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
CHANCES HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BY DAWN. AS LOW APPROACHES ENC THIS EVENING,
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS OF
20-30+ KTS (GUSTS TO 45 KTS) POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA WATERS AND
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST
CARTERET, OCRACOKE ISLAND, AND HATTERAS ISLAND WITH AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER INLAND (10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS). FOR TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT, BUT SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST-TO- EAST
LATE. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE
LOW PASSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW 40S INLAND
WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM MON...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPOTTY REMNANT
SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND RAPID ADVECTION OF DRY AIR WILL AID IN
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND, BUT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP OBX CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 PM MON...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO EASTERN NC FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS TODAY'S COASTAL LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND EXPECT ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MAY
THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. FOR NOW, KEPT POPS CONFINED OFFSHORE.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE IS QUITE GOOD FOR A DAY 6-7 FORECAST, AND
CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT, WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY,
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING
AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH, AND MOISTURE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY. AS USUAL, DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS AND WE ENCOURAGE USERS TO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /19Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON... A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY
NOTED ACROSS ENC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST, AND THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
ENC THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
CEILINGS HAVE STEADILY LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH ALL
TAF SITES REPORTING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UP NORTH, INCLUDING KPGV
AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING KISO AND
LOCATIONS EASTWARD, MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADIER RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT. FINALLY, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE, INCLUDING KEWN AND KOAJ, WILL SEE THE
WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING FURTHER TO IFR. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL HAS A LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF SEEING IFR AT TAF
SITES BUT DEPICTS A HIGHER CHANCE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST (WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT MRH), SO
WHILE TAFS DO NOT EXPLICITLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS, HAVE INCLUDED
A SCT DECK AT EWN/OAJ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM ENC AND CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
ONLY OTHER THING TO NOTE WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND OBX WHICH WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT. INLAND 10-15 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
WHILE ALONG THE COAST AND OBX 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20 KT INLAND AND 25-35 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PREDOMINANTLY VFR PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING LOW IMPACTS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BRINGING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO AREA WATERS.
- STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
1005 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG THE GA/SC
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IS APPROACHES ENC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NOTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS). IN ADDITION TO THIS,
SEAS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE INCREASED TO 3-6 FT. LOW WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PEAKING AT 25-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND, INLAND RIVERS, AND OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. AS THE LOW NEARS OUR COAST AND BEGINS TO PUSH OUT TO SEA
LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WHILE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER WITH 25-30 KT NE-N WINDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND 25-35 KT NE-N WINDS AND
40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND IN KIND TO THE STRONG WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-9 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON
EVENTUALLY GETTING TO 8-12 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN WATERS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
EVENING AND THEN 6-8 FT BY TUE MORNING. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO EASE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON... SEAS PEAK TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 8-12 FT
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH AREA WATERS, RAISING THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD GALES AND DANGEROUS OFFSHORE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM MON...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO ENC TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING FARTHER OFF
THE COAST TOMORROW. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW DEEPENS. WINDS THEN PEAK
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO
CAPE HATTERAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT COULD PRODUCE MINOR BEACH AND DUNE
EROSION AND POSSIBLY MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH IN THE SAME LOCATIONS
WITH POTENTIAL INUNDATION OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED SOUNDSIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVEL RISES IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, AND LESS SO FOR THE PAMLICO
AND PUNGO RIVERS. GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUNDSIDE FORECAST
WINDS AND SUPPORT FROM RELIABLE GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, S CRAVEN AND E CARTERET FOR
1-2 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NCZ196-204-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD/ZC
MARINE...JME/CQD/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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