009
FXUS62 KMHX 110513
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EAST CARTERET, OCRACOKE ISLAND,
AND HATTERAS ISLAND
- STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD
COASTAL ENC TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS
TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WIND
NOTE WITH A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL NE'RLY JET OVER THE COAST
HAVE SEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS CLOSER TO 50-60 MPH ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IN CARTERET, SOUTHERN CRAVEN, AND
IN THE NEUSE RIVER, THOUGH GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
GUSTS AND THE EXPECTATION FOR THE AMBIENT WIND FIELD TO BE MUCH
LOWER HAVE LEFT HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. FINALLY WHILE THERE IS SOME
CLEARING OF SKIES ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST DUE TO THE LARGE
NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD RETURN TO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SKIES OFFICIALLY CLEAR
LATER TUE MORNING.
PREV DISC...A SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED ALONG THE NC COAST JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OVER ONSLOW BAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW,
STRONG CONVECTIVE FEATURES HAVE EMERGED, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST EAST TO CAPE LOOKOUT, AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AND ADDED IN CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. A NON- ZERO BUT SMALL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THIS
SECTOR IF CONVECTION REMAINS AS ORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
TO LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK IN FOR SOME TIME TONIGHT BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
OF CAPE LOOKOUT. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND OBX WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, DECREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
AS LOW APPROACHES ENC THIS EVENING, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS OF 20-30+ KTS (GUSTS TO 45 KTS)
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA WATERS AND ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST CARTERET, OCRACOKE ISLAND, AND
HATTERAS ISLAND WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
INLAND (10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS).
FOR TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER WILL INITIALLY LIMIT COOLING
TONIGHT, BUT SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST-TO- EAST LATE. THIS
CLEARING COUPLED WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW 40S INLAND WHILE
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM MON...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPOTTY REMNANT
SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND RAPID ADVECTION OF DRY AIR WILL AID IN
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
INLAND, BUT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP OBX CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 PM MON...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO EASTERN NC FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS TODAY'S COASTAL LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND EXPECT ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MAY
THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. FOR NOW, KEPT POPS CONFINED OFFSHORE.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE IS QUITE GOOD FOR A DAY 6-7 FORECAST, AND
CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT, WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY,
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING
AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH, AND MOISTURE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY. AS USUAL, DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS AND WE ENCOURAGE USERS TO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM TUE... SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 17 TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IS NOW
DUE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEGINNING TO PUSH E'WARDS. WEST OF
THIS LINE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEEPENING LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY.
FOR NOW ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH OAJ ALREADY
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND EWN LIKELY TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING AROUND THE OBX. VFR CEILINGS ARE FOUND ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17 AND EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS HERE TONIGHT
ACROSS ISO/PGV TAF SITES. WILL NOTE WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GUSTIER WINDS CLOSER TO 35-45 KTS NOTED
ALONG THE OBX SOUTH OF HATTERAS ISLAND, WINDS SHOULD THEN EASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST. FOR NOW NOTHING IS HINTING AT FOG FOR TUE NIGHT
BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE THREAT JUST YET, THOUGH WITH
AMPLE DRY AIR TUE NIGHT IT REMAINS UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20 KT INLAND AND 25-35 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PREDOMINANTLY VFR PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING LOW IMPACTS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BRINGING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO AREA WATERS.
- STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS MAY BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS TO SOME BEACHES, SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
1005 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG THE GA/SC
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IS APPROACHES ENC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NOTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS). IN ADDITION TO THIS,
SEAS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE INCREASED TO 3-6 FT. LOW WILL
MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PEAKING AT 25-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND, INLAND RIVERS, AND OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. AS THE LOW NEARS OUR COAST AND BEGINS TO PUSH OUT TO SEA
LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WHILE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER WITH 25-30 KT NE-N WINDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND 25-35 KT NE-N WINDS AND
40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND IN KIND TO THE STRONG WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-9 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON
EVENTUALLY GETTING TO 8-12 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN WATERS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
EVENING AND THEN 6-8 FT BY TUE MORNING. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO EASE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON... SEAS PEAK TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 8-12 FT
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH AREA WATERS, RAISING THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD GALES AND DANGEROUS OFFSHORE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM MON...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO ENC TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING FARTHER OFF
THE COAST TOMORROW. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW DEEPENS. WINDS THEN PEAK
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO
CAPE HATTERAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT COULD PRODUCE MINOR BEACH AND DUNE
EROSION AND POSSIBLY MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH IN THE SAME LOCATIONS
WITH POTENTIAL INUNDATION OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED SOUNDSIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVEL RISES IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, AND LESS SO FOR THE PAMLICO
AND PUNGO RIVERS. GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUNDSIDE FORECAST
WINDS AND SUPPORT FROM RELIABLE GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, S CRAVEN AND E CARTERET FOR
1-2 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ094-
194.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ196-204-205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RCF
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SGK/RCF
MARINE...JME/CQD/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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