417
FXUS62 KMHX 110823
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
423 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH OUT
TO SEA LATER TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS STRONG LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM ENC
UPPER LEVEL NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH HAS
RECENTLY PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST
TODAY. LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE MID
LEVEL LOW NOW OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS OF THIS UPDATE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO PIVOT
AROUND THIS LARGE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 17 ACROSS THE OBX CLOSEST TO THIS LOWS ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT. THOUGH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW AS WELL IN MARTIN AND PITT
COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWS THIS MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND IN THE 50S ALONG THE
OBX.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
OF 20-30+ KTS (GUSTS TO 45 KTS) NOTED ALREADY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY, AREA WATERS NEAR
THE PAMLICO, AND ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
UP FOR EAST CARTERET, OCRACOKE ISLAND, AND HATTERAS ISLAND GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND BACK TO A
N'RLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING WITH THIS WIND ADVISORY EXPIRING AT
10AM. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER INLAND (10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS). IN ADDITION TO THIS, GIVEN THE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE/BAY RIVERS, AND
OCEANSIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OBX, SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS WE GET INTO TODAY SURFACE LOW WILL STEADILY TRACK E'WARDS PULLING
AWAY FROM ENC. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LAST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY MOVING AWAY FROM THE OBX JUST AFTER 8AM
OR SO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED ACROSS ENC KEEPING WIND ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE FULLY
TAKES CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY EASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF ENC. EVEN
WITH A GOOD SHOT OF CAA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW,
NW TO W FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND AND MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL OF
ENC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR TYPICALLY SHELTERED LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE OBX THOUGH IF WE DO GET EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THESE TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM FOR TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS NEEDED. WHILE
IT LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR FOG AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER
OPTIMISTIC WE STAY CLEAR TONIGHT, GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR SOME FOG
TONIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO EASTERN NC FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS COASTAL LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING
OUR AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES EASTERN NC AND EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MAY THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES.
OPTED TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OUTER
BANKS ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BACKDOOR FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY FRI
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
IT COULD OVERSPREAD SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO START FRI
MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY GETS REMAINS IN QUESTION
THANKS TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD, BUT AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD REACH
HIGHWAY 264.
UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TIMING ON
THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW
SHOWING A SLOWER FRONT NOT IMPACTING EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE TIMING SHIFT, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S TIMING. FOR NOW, A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM TUE... SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 17 TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IS NOW
DUE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEGINNING TO PUSH E'WARDS. WEST OF
THIS LINE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEEPENING LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY.
FOR NOW ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH OAJ ALREADY
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND EWN LIKELY TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING AROUND THE OBX. VFR CEILINGS ARE FOUND ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17 AND EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS HERE TONIGHT
ACROSS ISO/PGV TAF SITES. WILL NOTE WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GUSTIER WINDS CLOSER TO 35-45 KTS NOTED
ALONG THE OBX SOUTH OF HATTERAS ISLAND, WINDS SHOULD THEN EASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST. FOR NOW NOTHING IS HINTING AT FOG FOR TUE NIGHT
BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE THREAT JUST YET, THOUGH WITH
AMPLE DRY AIR TUE NIGHT IT REMAINS UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
WILL REMAIN SAFELY AT VFR LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING WITH IT A RISK OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND FOG,
BUT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM ENC.
1000 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED DUE SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING AS IT PUSHES OUT TO SEA WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING OUR WATERS QUICKLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE KEPT ALL
HEADLINES IN PLACE AS WELL WITH A MIX OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFTS.
WHILE WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO FAR, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA
WATERS. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT N'RLY WINDS WITH 35 KT
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH 25-35 KT
N'RLY WINDS AND 40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND
NORTHERN SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS EXPECT GENERAL 15-25 KT N'RLY
WINDS WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLIGATOR AND NEUSE RIVERS
WHENEVER WINDS CAN FUNNEL. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TODAY, WINDS
QUICKLY EASE IN KIND DOWN TO 15-25 KTS ALONG THE INLAND WATERS
AND 15-25 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW
35 KTS EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON THUS ENDING THE GALE
THREAT. SCA'S ALONG OUR INLAND WATERS ALSO END THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS WELL WITH JUST SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. 8-12 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 6-9 FT SEAS NOTED NORTH OF OREGON
INLET THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING THIS EVENING DOWN TO 6-9 FT ALONG ALL
COASTAL WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO FALL WELL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL THOUGH THE NIGHT.
AS A MATTER OF FACT BY WED MORNING EXPECT SCA'S TO ONLY BE UP
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR 4-6 FT SEAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 425 AM TUE...SURFACE LOW, AFTER MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE COAST A FEW HOURS AGO, IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IS STILL OVERSPREADING VERY
IMPRESSIVE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AT THEIR PEAK THIS MORNING, EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED FROM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO
CAPE HATTERAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO RISK MINOR BEACH
AND DUNE EROSION AND POSSIBLY MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH IN THE SAME LOCATIONS
WITH INUNDATION OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED SOUNDSIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVEL RISES REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, AND LESS SO FOR THE PAMLICO
AND PUNGO RIVERS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS FOR PAMLICO, S
CRAVEN AND E CARTERET FOR 1-2 FEET OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL, BUT DID EXTEND INTO THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN STRENGTH OF
OBSERVED WINDS AND RELIABLE SURGE GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE
AGGRESSIVE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ094-194-196-204-205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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