745
FXUS62 KMHX 111721
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
121 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH OUT
TO SEA LATER TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS STRONG
LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM ENC
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS, POPS, AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. BIGGEST CHANGES WERE TO CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARTERET, ONSLOW, CRAVEN,
PAMLICO, AND HYDE COUNTIES. GIVEN DECREASES IN WINDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, HAVE EXPIRED THE COASTAL
FLOOD, HIGH SURF, AND WIND ADVISORIES AND DOWNGRADED GALE
WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS REMAIN.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SURFACE LOW WILL STEADILY TRACK
EASTWARDS, PULLING AWAY FROM ENC. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
OBX THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED
ACROSS ENC KEEPING WIND ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TAKES CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY EASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF ENC. EVEN WITH A GOOD SHOT OF CAA THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, NW TO W FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 70S INLAND AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL
OF ENC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR TYPICALLY SHELTERED LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE OBX THOUGH IF WE DO GET EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THESE TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM FOR TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS NEEDED. WHILE
IT LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR FOG AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER
OPTIMISTIC WE STAY CLEAR TONIGHT, GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR SOME FOG
TONIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO EASTERN NC FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS COASTAL LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING
OUR AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES EASTERN NC AND EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MAY THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES.
OPTED TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OUTER
BANKS ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BACKDOOR FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY FRI
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
IT COULD OVERSPREAD SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO START FRI
MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY GETS REMAINS IN QUESTION
THANKS TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD, BUT AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD REACH
HIGHWAY 264.
UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TIMING ON
THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW
SHOWING A SLOWER FRONT NOT IMPACTING EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE TIMING SHIFT, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S TIMING. FOR NOW, A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE OUTER BANKS. REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
SHORTLY, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING BOTH DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE, AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND PATCHY
IN NATURE. THUS, HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED FOG MENTION IN
ANY TAFS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
15-20 KTS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
WILL REMAIN SAFELY AT VFR LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING WITH IT A RISK OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND FOG,
BUT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM ENC.
1000 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED DUE SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING AS IT PUSHES OUT TO SEA WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING OUR WATERS QUICKLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE KEPT ALL
HEADLINES IN PLACE AS WELL WITH A MIX OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFTS.
WHILE WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO FAR, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA
WATERS. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT N'RLY WINDS WITH 35 KT
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH 25-35 KT
N'RLY WINDS AND 40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND
NORTHERN SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS EXPECT GENERAL 15-25 KT N'RLY
WINDS WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLIGATOR AND NEUSE RIVERS
WHENEVER WINDS CAN FUNNEL. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TODAY, WINDS
QUICKLY EASE IN KIND DOWN TO 15-25 KTS ALONG THE INLAND WATERS
AND 15-25 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW
35 KTS EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON THUS ENDING THE GALE
THREAT. SCA'S ALONG OUR INLAND WATERS ALSO END THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS WELL WITH JUST SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. 8-12 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 6-9 FT SEAS NOTED NORTH OF OREGON
INLET THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING THIS EVENING DOWN TO 6-9 FT ALONG ALL
COASTAL WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO FALL WELL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL THOUGH THE NIGHT.
AS A MATTER OF FACT BY WED MORNING EXPECT SCA'S TO ONLY BE UP
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR 4-6 FT SEAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/ZC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/ZC
MARINE...MS/RCF
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