318
FXUS62 KMHX 111912
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...
SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS LOW, RAIN AND CLOUDS QUICKLY
CLEARED OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCEPT
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
50S AMID NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW). NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S INLAND (NEAR 50
BEACHES). WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF FOG
TONIGHT, POTENTIAL EXISTS GIVEN GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY BEEN
UNDER-DOING DEWPOINTS TODAY, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
BOTH DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. CLEAR SKIES AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL GIVE RISE TO A STRONG DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE AS TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 40S
NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND 80 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS
ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING OUR AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH
MAY THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. OPTED TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OUTER BANKS ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY FRI MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION IT COULD OVERSPREAD SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TO START FRI MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS REMAINS IN QUESTION THANKS TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD,
BUT AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD REACH HIGHWAY 264.
UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TIMING ON
THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW
SHOWING A SLOWER FRONT NOT IMPACTING EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE TIMING SHIFT, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S TIMING. FOR NOW, A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE OUTER BANKS. REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
SHORTLY, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING BOTH DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE, AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND PATCHY
IN NATURE. THUS, HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED FOG MENTION IN ANY
TAFS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20
KTS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
WILL REMAIN SAFELY AT VFR LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING WITH IT A RISK OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG, BUT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ENC.
- NEXT ROUND OF MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE REPLACED GALE
WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS PAMLICO SOUND AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SCA'S ALONG OUR INLAND WATERS HAVE ALSO
EXPIRED. 7-10 FT SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 6-9
FT SEAS NOTED NORTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO
BEGIN LOWERING THIS EVENING DOWN TO 6-9 FT ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING
THOUGH THE NIGHT. BY DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT SCA'S TO
ONLY BE UP ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO
OREGON INLET FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WAVES SHOULD FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/ZC
SHORT TERM...TL/ZC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/ZC
MARINE...DAG/ZC
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