424
FXUS62 KMHX 112203
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 6 PM TUE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOW OVER THE AREA AS THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS
DEPARTED WELL OUT TO SEA EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND, AND NEAR 50 BEACHES. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TONIGHT, A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS
GIVEN GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. CLEAR SKIES AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL GIVE RISE TO A STRONG DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE AS TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 40S
NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND 80 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS
ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING OUR AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH
MAY THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. OPTED TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OUTER BANKS ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY FRI MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION IT COULD OVERSPREAD SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TO START FRI MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY GETS REMAINS IN QUESTION THANKS TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD,
BUT AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD REACH HIGHWAY 264.
UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TIMING ON
THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW
SHOWING A SLOWER FRONT NOT IMPACTING EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE TIMING SHIFT, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S TIMING. FOR NOW, A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
RECENT RAINFALL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT IMPACTFUL FOG.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT
WILL REMAIN SAFELY AT VFR LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING WITH IT A RISK OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG, BUT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ENC.
- NEXT ROUND OF MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
AREA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. 5-8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST,
EXPECT WINDS TO FALL WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THOUGH THE NIGHT. BY DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT
SCA'S TO ONLY BE UP ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO OREGON INLET FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WAVES SHOULD FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/ZC
SHORT TERM...TL/ZC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JME/ZC
MARINE...DAG/JME/ZC
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