428  
FXUS62 KMHX 120048  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
848 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DEPARTING LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA  
COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH  
AND WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE  
WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA INTO  
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE  
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 845 PM TUE...  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED. CLEAR  
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC  
OVERNIGHT. THIS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET WITH  
EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND, AND NEAR 50 BEACHES.  
WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TONIGHT, A  
LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS GIVEN GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND  
RECENT RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND  
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. CLEAR SKIES AND  
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL GIVE RISE TO A STRONG DIURNAL  
TEMPERATURE CURVE AS TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 40S  
NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND 80 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 3 PM TUE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC FOR  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT  
WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION REMAINS  
ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING OUR AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.  
 
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE  
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN NC AND  
EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO  
SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH  
MAY THREATEN COASTAL LOCALES. OPTED TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OUTER BANKS ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE  
DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY FRI MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY  
WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION IT COULD OVERSPREAD SOME LOW  
STRATUS AND FOG TO START FRI MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS  
BOUNDARY GETS REMAINS IN QUESTION THANKS TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD,  
BUT AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD REACH HIGHWAY 264.  
 
UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN  
SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT  
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. TIMING ON  
THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW  
SHOWING A SLOWER FRONT NOT IMPACTING EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE TIMING SHIFT, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO  
SHOW UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT AND  
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS  
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, RAISING THE  
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL/FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF  
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LESS CERTAIN IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE  
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S TIMING. FOR NOW, A  
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 6 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  
GIVEN CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH  
RECENT RAINFALL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO  
SUPPORT IMPACTFUL FOG.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO  
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASE IN CLOUDS  
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE BUT  
WILL REMAIN SAFELY AT VFR LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 ON FRIDAY  
MORNING AND MAY BRING WITH IT A RISK OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND  
FOG, BUT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN  
UNCERTAIN.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 845 PM TUE...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ENC.  
 
- NEXT ROUND OF MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE  
SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE AND ARE CURRENTLY 5-10 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 15 KT ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN  
EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS. 5-8 FT SEAS  
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA  
CRITERIA THROUGH WED WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING THOUGH THE  
NIGHT. BY DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT SCA'S TO ONLY BE UP  
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO OREGON INLET FOR  
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WAVES SHOULD FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY  
LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD  
INTO THE AREA.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 3 PM TUE...HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.  
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS  
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY  
OF GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-156-  
158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/ZC  
SHORT TERM...TL/ZC  
LONG TERM...DAG  
AVIATION...DAG/JME/ZC  
MARINE...DAG/JME/ZC  
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