711
FXUS62 KMHX 130203
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ON FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PUSHES
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT,
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COOL
MOIST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW HAS KEPT CLOUDS IN PLACE
ALL DAY, BUT EXPECT SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY AND WINDS BECOME MORE NW. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS EVENING DRIVEN BY SOME INCREASING
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DRIVE THESE
SHOWERS AND A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW
PLACES THAT IT RAINS. AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION. ASSUMING CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AND ALLOW FOR LOWS
TO REACH THE LOW 40S INLAND, AND THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 PM SAT... SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO ENC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY KEEPING SKIES MO
CLEAR AND THINGS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. NW'RLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A W'RLY SUN AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF ENC. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DO THINK WE
ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY WITHOUT THE CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE OBX TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING. A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY POSING A MODEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL
MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY BUT STEADILY
WARMER INTO MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SOAR ON MONDAY IN
INCREASING PRE- FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, POINTING TO TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE ON A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES ON ITS TIMING. THE KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-
60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS
MONDAY. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RAISE FLAGS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT
FORECAST MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH AND TDS
IN THE MID-50S. PRETTY MUCH ALL RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW
SHOWS MODEST QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO TICK UP, SO RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND RETAINED A THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION, BUT SPREAD IN TIMING AND FORECAST IMPACTS
REMAINS EXPECTEDLY LARGE. KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED THIS EVENING TO
THE AIRSPACE, AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY TOMORROW MORNING.
CURRENTLY CEILINGS OF 5000-7000 FT ARE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING, AND THEN CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOME DOMINANT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD
TO AVIATION INTERESTS BEING GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. THERE
REMAINS A MODEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
SCA'S ARE CURRENTLY NOTED NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS AND 15-20 KT NW'RLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NOTED. ELSEWHERE 15-20 KT NW'RLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 KTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF OUR WATERS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
NOTED SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AT 5-15 KTS WITH SEAS LOWERING ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TO 2-4
FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND TO 3-5 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
THUS ENDING SCA'S ACROSS OUR WATERS
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EASING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGING MOVE BACK OVER AREA WATERS, USHERING IN BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
BULLISH ON A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS FAR OUTER WATERS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SCA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OCEANIC WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. KEPT GALE
MENTIONS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PEAK SEAS REACH 6-9
FEET.
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND STEADILY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...MS/RCF
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