279
FXUS62 KMHX 131100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN OOZES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS ENC AS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE WITH SKC SKIES. SOME INTERIOR LOCALES HAVE DIPPED DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S FOR MORNING LOWS.
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM SUN...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO ENC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY KEEPING
SKIES MO CLEAR WITH MODERATING (WARMING) TEMPS. NW'RLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A W'RLY DIRECTION
LATE TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF
ENC. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DO THINK WE ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO SAT.
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN AVG HOWEVER, SO MAX T'S WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST, TO AROUND 60 OBX ZONES. THESE
VALS SOME 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT, OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY POSING A MODEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL MODEL SPREAD
IS LARGE.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ALOFT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SOAR ON MONDAY
IN INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, POINTING TO TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND AND 70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
NOT BE AN OPPRESSIVE WARMTH AS TDS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN INSISTENT ON A
FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE
KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS
WIDER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT ON AVERAGE FORECAST HIGHS SIT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RAISE FLAGS FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT FORECAST MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH
PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH AND TDS IN THE MID-50S. PRETTY MUCH ALL
RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MODEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (ALTHOUGH EPS IS SKEWING SLIGHTLY WETTER
THAN THE GEFS). RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE IS AT TYPICALLY LARGE LEVELS THIS FAR OUT (CASE IN POINT,
LREF MEAN NOW POINTS TO PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING A FULL 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR
NOW. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO WARM BACK ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...LINGERING STRATUS CLEARS BY SUNRISE WITH MO
SUNNY SKIES RETURNING AND LIGHT NWRLY BREEZES THIS MORNING
BACKING TO WSW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO FG/BR EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH CALM WIND AND SKC SKIES, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
PATCHY FG IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION
INTERESTS BEING GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT, THEN UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS A MODEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
WELL. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE HATTERAS ISLAND AND PTS NORTH. WINDS ONLY 10-20 KT, WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS NRN/CTRL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH BY LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS BECOME SWRLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE AND
SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SCA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND, AND SPOTTY GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR OUTER
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ADJACENT WATERS, BOTH IN PRE-FRONTAL SW AND POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PEAK SEAS REACH 6-9 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS RALEIGH BAY.
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND STEADILY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY WED
AFTERNOON, EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS
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