385
FXUS62 KMHX 131709
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN OOZES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME DIURNAL CU IS NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS, TEMPS HAVE GOTTEN INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALREADY AND EXPECTED TO GET SLIGHTLY
WARMER TODAY RESULTING IN A RATHER PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM SUN...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO ENC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY KEEPING
SKIES MO CLEAR WITH MODERATING (WARMING) TEMPS. NW'RLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A W'RLY DIRECTION
LATE TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF
ENC. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DO THINK WE ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO SAT.
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN AVG HOWEVER, SO MAX T'S WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST, TO AROUND 60 OBX ZONES. THESE
VALS SOME 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT, OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY POSING A MODEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL MODEL SPREAD
IS LARGE.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ALOFT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SOAR ON MONDAY
IN INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, POINTING TO TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND AND 70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
NOT BE AN OPPRESSIVE WARMTH AS TDS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN INSISTENT ON A
FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE
KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS
WIDER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT ON AVERAGE FORECAST HIGHS SIT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RAISE FLAGS FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT FORECAST MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH
PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH AND TDS IN THE MID-50S. PRETTY MUCH ALL
RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MODEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (ALTHOUGH EPS IS SKEWING SLIGHTLY WETTER
THAN THE GEFS). RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE IS AT TYPICALLY LARGE LEVELS THIS FAR OUT (CASE IN POINT,
LREF MEAN NOW POINTS TO PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING A FULL 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR
NOW. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO WARM BACK ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 110 PM SUN...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY
POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS MON AFTERNOON. WHILE WE ONCE
AGAIN DONT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TO SEE GROUND FOG
BEING AT EWN/OAJ/PGV THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OPERATION
IS EXPECTED IF GROUND FOG WERE TO DEVELOP
LONG TERM /MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION
INTERESTS BEING GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT, THEN UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS A MODEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
WELL. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE HATTERAS ISLAND AND PTS NORTH. WINDS ONLY 10-20 KT, WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS NRN/CTRL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH BY LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS BECOME SWRLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE AND
SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SCA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND, AND SPOTTY GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR OUTER
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ADJACENT WATERS, BOTH IN PRE-FRONTAL SW AND POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PEAK SEAS REACH 6-9 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS RALEIGH BAY.
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND STEADILY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY WED
AFTERNOON, EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...TL/MS
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