406
FXUS62 KMHX 132318
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN
PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM SUN...QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR (ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA), AND WINDS NEARLY CALM, WHICH WILL BOTH
CONTRIBUTE TO GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 40S INLAND, AND THE MID TO UPPER
40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE AT
THE START OF MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MON NIGHT
BRINGING A WAA REGIME TO THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. WITH DEEP MIXING FORCAST TO
OCCUR AS WELL, WINDS WILL BECOME SW'RLY MON MORNING AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY GETTING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL, BUT
WITH INCREASE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND AN ONGOING WAA REGIME IN
PLACE, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...
A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY POSING A MODEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
UPPER TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL MODEL SPREAD IS
LARGE.
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN INSISTENT ON A
FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE
KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS
WIDER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT ON AVERAGE FORECAST HIGHS SIT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RAISE FLAGS FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT FORECAST MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH
PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH AND TDS IN THE MID-50S. PRETTY MUCH ALL
RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MODEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (ALTHOUGH EPS IS SKEWING SLIGHTLY WETTER
THAN THE GEFS). RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE IS AT TYPICALLY LARGE LEVELS THIS FAR OUT (CASE IN POINT,
LREF MEAN NOW POINTS TO PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING A FULL 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR
NOW. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO WARM BACK ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA NOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM TONIGHT, BUT
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE SW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT DON'T THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS
SOME 4-5 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING MET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION
INTERESTS BEING GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT, THEN UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS A MODEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
WELL. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...PREVIOUS SCA'S ALONG OUR WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET HAVE SINCE BEEN CANCELLED AS NW'RLY WINDS OF
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING TO BECOME SW'RLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KTS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT A STRONG
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
INCREASE THE SW'RLY WINDS TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE RIVER, AND
CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND IN THE PAMLICO SOUND TO 20-30 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP NEAR 35 KTS BY MON AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS IN RESPONSE TO THESE ELEVATED
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT MON AFTERNOON AND THEN
6-8 FT BY MON EVENING. AS A RESULT, HAVE ELECTED TO PUT UP
SCA'S ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS FOR GUSTY SW'RLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SCA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND, AND SPOTTY GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR OUTER
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ADJACENT WATERS, BOTH IN PRE-FRONTAL SW AND POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PEAK SEAS REACH 6-9 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS RALEIGH BAY.
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND STEADILY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY WED
AFTERNOON, EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...MS/RCF
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