304
FXUS62 KMHX 140719
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
LEE TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND, AND 70S FOR THE BEACHES. THESE
TEMPERATURES, WHILE NOT RECORD-BREAKING, WILL BE A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID- APRIL. A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 20- 30 MPH DURING PEAK
HEATING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SUPPORT A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT, WITH CONTINUED WARM
LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES. GIVEN THE WARM, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME, AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, I USED NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THIS GIVES LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF ENC.
WHILE NOT RECORD BREAKING, THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...
A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY POSING A MODEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
UPPER TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL MODEL SPREAD IS
LARGE.
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN INSISTENT ON A
FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE
KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS
WIDER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT ON AVERAGE FORECAST HIGHS SIT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RAISE FLAGS FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT FORECAST MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH
PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH AND TDS IN THE MID-50S. PRETTY MUCH ALL
RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MODEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (ALTHOUGH EPS IS SKEWING SLIGHTLY WETTER
THAN THE GEFS). RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE IS AT TYPICALLY LARGE LEVELS THIS FAR OUT (CASE IN POINT,
LREF MEAN NOW POINTS TO PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING A FULL 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR
NOW. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO WARM BACK ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
- INCREASED RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY, AND LASTING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, DEEPENING MIXING WILL SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FREQUENT AS DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY MONDAY EVENING, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LLWS
IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF ENC. A DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SUB VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION INTERESTS BEING GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO
20-25 KT, THEN UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS A MODEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AND
PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
TODAY THANKS TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF
THIS IN RECENT MARINE OBS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE COOLER
COASTAL WATERS FROM HATTERAS NORTH, WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BUILD. EVENTUALLY, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 15-25KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS FOR
MOST WATERS. THE MARINE HEADLINES APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE IMPACT
OF THE WIND AND SEAS FAIRLY WELL, AND ONLY MINOR TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OF NOTE, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE NORTHERN RIVERS, SOUNDS, AND COASTAL WATERS JUST BELOW 25KT
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PERIOD OF 25KT+ WIND GUSTS. BASED ON ALL OF THAT, THE
SCA POTENTIAL APPEARS A BIT MORE MARGINAL FOR THOSE NORTHERN
WATERS, BUT GIVEN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT, THERE'S APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
HIGHER GUSTS SEEN WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE,
AND WE'LL KEEP THE SCAS AS- IS FOR NOW. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 34KT APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT
I DON'T EXPECT IT TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE
WARNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS, SEAS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE BY TONIGHT.
NORTH OF HATTERAS, SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE BY
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SCA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND, AND SPOTTY GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR OUTER
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ADJACENT WATERS, BOTH IN PRE-FRONTAL SW AND POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PEAK SEAS REACH 6-9 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS RALEIGH BAY.
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND STEADILY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY WED
AFTERNOON, EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page