950
FXUS62 KMHX 140800
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
LEE TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND, AND 70S FOR THE BEACHES. THESE
TEMPERATURES, WHILE NOT RECORD-BREAKING, WILL BE A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID- APRIL. A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 20- 30 MPH DURING PEAK
HEATING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SUPPORT A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT, WITH CONTINUED WARM
LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES. GIVEN THE WARM, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME, AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, I USED NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THIS GIVES LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF ENC.
WHILE NOT RECORD BREAKING, THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...
TUESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN INSISTENT
ON A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT
ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF GUIDANCE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PRECIP, AND THUNDER, IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WHAT MOISTURE THERE
IS WITH THE FRONT WILL GET WRUNG OUT IN THE APPALACHIANS, AS THE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT ARE LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS THE
GULF IS CUT OFF. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT, WITH
SLGHT CHC INLAND (20%), AND CHC COASTAL COUNTIES (30%). KEPT A
VERY SMALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR COASTAL COUNTIES, THOUGH THIS
CAN BE TAKEN OUT BY LATER SHIFTS IF TREND CONTINUES. VERY DRY
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WRLY WINDS OFF THE APPALACHIANS, AND COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS A WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND RH'S IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S %.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN INTERIOR LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SOME OF THE NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCALES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 14/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AND ENC
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM BACK
ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO HTS/THICKNESSES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
- INCREASED RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY, AND LASTING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, DEEPENING MIXING WILL SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FREQUENT AS DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY MONDAY EVENING, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LLWS
IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF ENC. A DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SUB VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION INTERESTS BEING GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT, THEN UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY, WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE (20-30%) OF A SHOWER. A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR
IN CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA, THEN A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEEK'S END.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
TODAY THANKS TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF
THIS IN RECENT MARINE OBS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE COOLER
COASTAL WATERS FROM HATTERAS NORTH, WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO BUILD. EVENTUALLY, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 15-25KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS FOR
MOST WATERS. THE MARINE HEADLINES APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE IMPACT
OF THE WIND AND SEAS FAIRLY WELL, AND ONLY MINOR TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OF NOTE, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE NORTHERN RIVERS, SOUNDS, AND COASTAL WATERS JUST BELOW 25KT
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PERIOD OF 25KT+ WIND GUSTS. BASED ON ALL OF THAT, THE
SCA POTENTIAL APPEARS A BIT MORE MARGINAL FOR THOSE NORTHERN
WATERS, BUT GIVEN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT, THERE'S APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
HIGHER GUSTS SEEN WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE,
AND WE'LL KEEP THE SCAS AS- IS FOR NOW. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 34KT APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT
I DON'T EXPECT IT TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE
WARNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS, SEAS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE BY TONIGHT.
NORTH OF HATTERAS, SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE BY
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...SCA CONDITIONS CONT ON TUE AS STRONG BUT MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OCNL WINDS TO 25+ KT MAY AFFLICT
THE REMAINING SOUNDS/RIVERS NOT UNDER SCA HEADLINES, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TIME TO ISSUE HEADLINES ATTM. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS SCA'S FOR PAMLICO AND THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL END BY 18Z. HIGH PRES NEARBY
FOR THU AND FRI WILL FAVOR GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS OVERALL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
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