879
FXUS62 KMHX 150557
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
157 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT, WITH
CONTINUED WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. GIVEN THE WARM,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF ENC. WHILE NOT
RECORD BREAKING, THIS IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH ONLY A VERY LOW RISK OF A LIGHT SHOWER TUESDAY
GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY.
THE KINEMATICS OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AVERAGING 50-60 KT PER LREF
GUIDANCE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP, AND THUNDER, IS
MOISTURE INFLOW. WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WITH THE FRONT WILL GET
WRUNG OUT IN THE APPALACHIANS, AS THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
FRONT ARE LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS THE GULF IS CUT OFF. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20-30% POPS WHICH SEEMS MORE THAN GENEROUS
CONSIDERING MOST MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AND THOSE THAT DO ARE FORECASTING ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WRLY WINDS OFF THE
APPALACHIANS, AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AS A WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND RH'S IN THE
AROUND 30S%.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN INTERIOR LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SOME OF THE NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCALES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 14/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AND ENC
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM BACK
ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO HTS/THICKNESSES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- LLWS IMPACTS OVERNIGHT
- GUSTY WINDS (25-35KT) TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT, THEN SWEEP
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERTOP MODEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LLWS IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ENC IN THE 14Z-19Z
TIMEFRAME. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES. A WELL MIXED
AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT APPEARS VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREQUENT 25-35KT GUSTS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION, CROSS WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT KEWN
AND KISO ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT, HOWEVER STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW
SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY FROM KEWN TO KOAJ
AND POINTS EAST. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY, A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF TSRA. HOWEVER,
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SHRA THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP COULD
HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER (35KT+) WIND GUSTS. THROUGHOUT
THE 06Z TAF CYCLE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, EVEN WHERE SHRA
FORM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SW
15-25 KT WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUE NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT TONIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...SCA CONDITIONS CONT ON TUE NIGHT. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS SCA'S FOR PAMLICO AND THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL END BY 18Z. HIGH PRES
NEARBY FOR THU AND FRI WILL FAVOR GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
OVERALL.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE BUT THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
25-30 MPH ON TUE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 30-35% EXPECTED. ON WED
NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 25-30%.
THE REGION HAS GREENED UP OVER THE PAST WEEK AND HAS RECEIVED
RAINFALL BUT THE DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS COULD POSE AN ENHANCED
FIRE RISK THIS WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-136-137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SGK
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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